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An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model

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  • Joaquim Pinto de Andrade
  • Vladimir Kuhl Teles

Abstract

This paper develops a statistical model to study the brazilian country risk using a country beta model in spirit of Harvey and Zhou (1993), Erb et. al. (1996a, 1996b) and Gangemi et. al. (2000). Specifically, we analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables using a time-varying parameter approach. An extension of the original model is applied in order to verify the parameters’ stability in time. We find that monetary policy have a significant and stable impact on Brazil’s country risk and international reserves have a significant impact only in fixed exchange rate period

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Vladimir Kuhl Teles, 2004. "An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 284, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:284
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2001. "Country risk and capital flow reversals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 73-77, July.
    2. Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 107-131, June.
    3. Marcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Glindmeier Didier Brandao, 2001. "Taxa de Juros, Risco Cambial e Risco Brasil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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    6. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 23-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
    8. Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May.
    9. Nicolaas, Patricia Groenewold Fraser, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9‐10), pages 1367-1383, October.
    10. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan, Gazi & Hisham, Al refai, 2010. "Can Macroeconomic Factors Explain Equity Returns in the Long Run? The Case of Jordan," MPRA Paper 22713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:14:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Sergey SVESHNIKOV & Victor BOCHARNIKOV, 2009. "Modeling Risk Of International Country Relations," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 558-569.
    5. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "A Importância Da Administração Da Dívida Pública Para A Construção Da Reputação Fiscal E Redução Do Risco-País: Evidências Empíricas Para O Brasil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.
    7. Vladimir Teles & Joaquim Andrade, 2008. "Monetary policy and country risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(15), pages 2021-2028.
    8. Ülkü, Numan & Baker, Saleh, 2014. "Country world betas: The link between the stock market beta and macroeconomic beta," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 36-46.
    9. William Shambora & Shamila Jayasuriya, 2008. "The world is shrinking: Evidence for stock market convergence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-12.

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    Keywords

    beta risk; country risk;

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