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Modeling Risk Of International Country Relations

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  • Sergey SVESHNIKOV
  • Victor BOCHARNIKOV

Abstract

In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on estimation of coincidences and contradictions of views of countries concerning decision of political, economic, military, domestic and international problems and projects. The model aggregates detailed estimations of separate problems into composite estimation of relations tension with using of fuzzy measures and integrals. The model allows receiving quantitative estimations of tension of international relations which are necessary for making investment decisions. We use this model for estimation of international political-economical risk of Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey SVESHNIKOV & Victor BOCHARNIKOV, 2009. "Modeling Risk Of International Country Relations," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 558-569.
  • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:4(10)_winter2009:p:86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    2. Joaquim Andrade & Vladimir Teles, 2006. "An empirical model of the Brazilian country risk -- an extension of the beta country risk model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1271-1278.
    3. Oya Erdogdu, 2008. "Political Decisions, Defense And Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 27-35.
    4. Rivoli, Pietra & Brewer, Thomas L., 1997. "Political instability and country risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 309-321.
    5. P. Hammer & A. Kogan & M. Lejeune, 2011. "Reverse-engineering country risk ratings: a combinatorial non-recursive model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 185-213, August.
    6. Christoph Moser & Thorsten Nestmann & Michael Wedow, 2008. "Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 781-803, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model; International relations; Fuzzy measure; Political-economical risks;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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