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Capital flight and political risk

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  • Lensink, Robert
  • Hermes, Niels
  • Murinde, Victor

Abstract

This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during a boom. Also some evidence is found for asymmetry in the United Kingdom and Belgium. In the Netherlands, monetary policy is not very effective in either regime.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 73-92

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:19:y:2000:i:1:p:73-92
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  2. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-55, December.
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  4. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  5. Gibson, Heather D & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 1993. "Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(2), pages 144-66, June.
  6. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989. "Why are Stabilizations Delayed?," NBER Working Papers 3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  9. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  10. Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
  11. Suhas L Ketkar & Kusum W. Ketkar, 1989. "Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(3), pages 11-29, 07.
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Cited by:

  1. Diana Constanza Restrepo Ochoa & Ricardo Correia & Javier Población, 2014. "Expropriation risk, investment decisions and economic sectors," Business Economics Working Papers wb142304, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  2. Sirr, Gordon & Garvey, John & Gallagher, Liam, 2011. "Emerging markets and portfolio foreign exchange risk: An empirical investigation using a value-at-risk decomposition technique," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1749-1772.
  3. Beja Jr, Edsel, 2010. "Balance of Payments-consistent unreported flows," MPRA Paper 21699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Rahim M.0 Quazi, 2014. "Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia and South Asia: An Econometric Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 231-242.
  5. Sveshnikov, Sergey & Bocharnikov, Victor, 2009. "Modeling risk of international country relations," MPRA Paper 15745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 841-866.
  7. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
  8. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 377-381, June.
  9. Davies, Victor A. B., 2007. "Capital flight and war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4210, The World Bank.
  10. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
  11. Bertin, Sara & Ohana, Steve & Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa, 2014. "Revisiting the Link between Political and Financial Crises in Africa," MPRA Paper 61695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Mumtaz Hussain & Oscar Brookins, 2001. "On the determinants of national saving: An extreme-bounds analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 150-174, March.
  13. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
  14. Le, Quan Vu & Zak, Paul J., 2006. "Political risk and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 308-329, March.
  15. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Causality between external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5042, The World Bank.
  16. Murinde V. & Poshakwala S., 2001. "Volatility in the Emerging Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence on Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 73-102, July - De.
  17. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  18. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert & Murinde, Victor, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  19. Maria de Boyrie & Simon Pak & John Zdanowicz, 2005. "The impact of Switzerland's money laundering law on capital flows through abnormal pricing in international trade," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 217-230.

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