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Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico

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  • SUHAS L KETKAR
  • KUSUM W. KETKAR

Abstract

This paper derives four alternative measures of “hot money” outflows of capital from Latin America's three major debtors–Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. These measures are based on two sources of quarterly data from 1977 to 1986: (i) the balance of payments statistics and (ii) changes in the U.S. bank deposits of non‐banking entities in the debtor countries. The portfolio adjustment model then is used to specify the factors influencing capital flight. These factors are grouped into two types. The push factors relate to characteristics of the so‐called source countries for capital flight and include the interest and inflation rates, the degree of currency overvaluation, and the environmental risks embodied in both frequent regime changes and the onset of the 1982 debt crisis. The pull factors include the interest and inflation rates in the host country, the United States. The principal findings of the paper show that the push factors alone are significant in explaining capital outflows from Argentina and Brazil. For Mexico, by contrast, the push factors as well as the pull factors are found to be relevant in explaining the behavior of flight capital, as measured by changes in the deposits of Mexican non‐bank entities in the U.S. banking system.

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  • Suhas L Ketkar & Kusum W. Ketkar, 1989. "Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(3), pages 11-29, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:7:y:1989:i:3:p:11-29
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1989.tb00566.x
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    1. Johnson, Lewis, 1976. "Inflationary Expectations and Momentary Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 395-400, June.
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    1. repec:dgr:rugsom:98c34 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    3. NGUENA Christian-Lambert, 2014. "External Debt Origin, Capital Flight and Poverty Reduction in the Franc Zone: Does the Economic Consequences of Sino-African Relationship matter?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 14/016, African Governance and Development Institute..
    4. M. Taner Yigit & Ali M. Kutan, 2004. "Effects of Transition and Political Instability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows : Central Europe and the Balkans," Working Papers 0407, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    5. Joaquin, Vespignani L, 2008. "Capital flight, saving rate and the golden rule level of capital: policy recommendations for Latin America countries," MPRA Paper 43824, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008.
    6. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink & Victor Murinde, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Ila Patnaik & Abhijit Sen Gupta & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Determinants of Trade Misinvoicing," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 891-910, November.
    8. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Cesar Alfredo Olivas Andrade, 2005. "Un Análisis de cointegración con corrección de errores de las Fugas de Capital y la Inestabilidad Política en México , An econometric model of capital flight in Mexico," International Finance 0511004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998. "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Capital Flight in African Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1349-1368, July.

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