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Un Análisis de cointegración con corrección de errores de las Fugas de Capital y la Inestabilidad Política en México , An econometric model of capital flight in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Diaz-Bautista

    (COLEF)

  • Cesar Alfredo Olivas Andrade

    (UACJ)

Abstract

Resumen El presente estudio se centra en analizar los factores que provocan el éxodo de capital en México, entre los que se incluyen: el saldo en cuenta corriente, el grado de sobrevaluación de la moneda, el diferencial en las tasas de interés entre México y Estados Unidos y el diferencial en las tasas de inflación México-Estados Unidos. De igual forma, se incluyen factores como la inestabilidad política y las llamadas crisis recurrentes en el análisis de las fugas de Capital en México. Asimismo, se plantean los modelos más comunes para la estimación de la fuga de capital aplicados a México. Abstract The study is centered on the model of capital flight from Mexico. Some of the variables that are used in the econometric model are the current account, the level of overvaluation of the currency, the interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States, political factors and economic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Cesar Alfredo Olivas Andrade, 2005. "Un Análisis de cointegración con corrección de errores de las Fugas de Capital y la Inestabilidad Política en México , An econometric model of capital flight in Mexico," International Finance 0511004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0511004
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25. Díaz-Bautista es economista del ITAM. Obtuvo el Doctorado y la Maestría en Economía en la Universidad de California, Irvine. Desde 1999 imparte cursos en el Colegio de la Frontera Norte y en la Universidad Iberoamericana del Noroeste, y desde 1995 fue profesor de Economía en la Universidad de California. Ha impartido conferencias en Estados Unidos, Canadá, Europa, Asia, Australia y en México, al igual que ha dedicado muchos años a la investigación en el campo de la Economía Internacional, Organización Industrial, y Crecimiento Económico. http://www.geocities.com/adiazbau/
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/0511/0511004.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eggerstedt, Harald & Hall, Rebecca Brideau & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Measuring capital flight: A case study of Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-232, February.
    2. Michael P. Dooley & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Capital flight, external debt, and domestic policies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-37.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nora Lustig, "undated". "The Mexican Peso Crisis: The Foreseeable and the Surprise," Discussion Papers 114, Brookings Institution International Economics.
    5. Suhas L Ketkar & Kusum W. Ketkar, 1989. "Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(3), pages 11-29, July.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. B.W. Smit & B.A. Mocke, 1991. "Capital Flight from South Africa: Magnitude and Causes," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 59(2), pages 60-77, June.
    9. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1990. "Capital flight from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Linda L. Tesar & Rene M. Stulz & Stephen Friedman & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Equity Markets in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters,in: International Capital Flows, pages 235-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fatehi, Kamal, 1994. "Capital flight from Latin America as a barometer of political instability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 187-195, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flight; Mexico; current account; interest rate differential; political factors and economic crisis.;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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