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Un Análisis de cointegración con corrección de errores de las Fugas de Capital y la Inestabilidad Política en México , An econometric model of capital flight in Mexico

  • Alejandro Diaz-Bautista


  • Cesar Alfredo Olivas Andrade


Resumen El presente estudio se centra en analizar los factores que provocan el éxodo de capital en México, entre los que se incluyen: el saldo en cuenta corriente, el grado de sobrevaluación de la moneda, el diferencial en las tasas de interés entre México y Estados Unidos y el diferencial en las tasas de inflación México-Estados Unidos. De igual forma, se incluyen factores como la inestabilidad política y las llamadas crisis recurrentes en el análisis de las fugas de Capital en México. Asimismo, se plantean los modelos más comunes para la estimación de la fuga de capital aplicados a México. Abstract The study is centered on the model of capital flight from Mexico. Some of the variables that are used in the econometric model are the current account, the level of overvaluation of the currency, the interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States, political factors and economic crisis.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0511004.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 18 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0511004
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25. Díaz-Bautista es economista del ITAM. Obtuvo el Doctorado y la Maestría en Economía en la Universidad de California, Irvine. Desde 1999 imparte cursos en el Colegio de la Frontera Norte y en la Universidad Iberoamericana del Noroeste, y desde 1995 fue profesor de Economía en la Universidad de California. Ha impartido conferencias en Estados Unidos, Canadá, Europa, Asia, Australia y en México, al igual que ha dedicado muchos años a la investigación en el campo de la Economía Internacional, Organización Industrial, y Crecimiento Económico.
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  1. Fatehi, Kamal, 1994. "Capital flight from Latin America as a barometer of political instability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 187-195, June.
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Nora Lustig, . "The Mexican Peso Crisis: The Foreseeable and the Surprise," Discussion Papers 114, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  6. Eggerstedt, Harald & Hall, Rebecca Brideau & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Measuring capital flight: A case study of Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-232, February.
  7. Suhas L Ketkar & Kusum W. Ketkar, 1989. "Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(3), pages 11-29, 07.
  8. Michael P. Dooley & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Capital Flight, External Debt and Domestic Policies," NBER Working Papers 4793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. B.W. Smit & B.A. Mocke, 1991. "Capital Flight from South Africa: Magnitude and Causes," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 59(2), pages 60-77, 06.
  10. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1990. "Capital flight from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
  11. Linda L. Tesar & Rene M. Stulz & Stephen Friedman & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Equity Markets in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 235-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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