IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wdi/papers/2004-729.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Transition and Political Instability On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans

Author

Listed:
  • Josef C. Brada

    ()

  • Ali M. Kutan
  • Taner M. Yigit

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of transition and of political instability on FDI flows to the transition economies of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. We find that FDI to transition economies unaffected by conflict and political instability exceed those that would be expected for comparable West European countries. Success with stabilization and reform tends to increase FDI inflows. In the case of Balkan counties, conflict and instability have reduced FDI inflows below what one would expect for comparable West European countries, and reform and stabilization failures have further reduced FDI to the region. Thus the economic costs of instability in the Balkans have been quite high.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2004. "The Effects of Transition and Political Instability On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp729, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40115/3/wp729.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where it Goes? New Evidence From the Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/228, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
    3. Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
    4. Markusen, James R & Maskus, Keith E, 2002. "Discriminating among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 694-707, November.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 1997. "Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 177-210, April.
    6. Stijn Claessens & Daniel Oks & Rossana Polastri, 2000. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 299-339 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Beata K. Smarzynska & Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Corruption and Composition of Foreign Direct Investment: Firm-Level Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro & Matthias Lücke, 1999. "Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 95-121, June.
    9. Cherian, Joseph A. & Perotti, Enrico, 2001. "Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 359-377, December.
    10. Vojmir Franičević, 1999. "Privatization in Croatia: Legacies and Context," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 5-54, April.
    11. Laura Resmini, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 665-689, November.
    12. David Fielding, 2003. "Modelling Political Instability and Economic Performance: Israeli Investment during the "Intifada"," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(277), pages 159-186, February.
    13. Blomstrom, Magnus & Persson, Hakan, 1983. "Foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy: Evidence from the Mexican manufacturing industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 493-501, June.
    14. Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-330, October.
    15. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
    16. Marjan Svetličič & Matija Rojec, 1998. "Tobačna Ljubljana, d.o.o.: Cigarette-Producing Company with the Majority Share of Reemtsma, Germany, and Seita, France," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 55-97, December.
    17. J Hatzius, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0336, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Suhas L Ketkar & Kusum W. Ketkar, 1989. "Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(3), pages 11-29, July.
    19. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2003. "Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-54, February.
    20. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-1018, September.
    21. Melvin, Michael & Tan, Kok-Hui, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Market Bid-Ask Spreads and the Market Price of Social Unrest," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 329-341, April.
    22. Hatzius, J., 1997. "Foreign direct investment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20351, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Schneider, Friedrich & Frey, Bruno S., 1985. "Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-175, February.
    24. Kim, Harold Y. & Mei, Jianping P., 2001. "What makes the stock market jump? An analysis of political risk on Hong Kong stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1003-1016, December.
    25. Aurora Galego & Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira, 2004. "The CEEC as FDI Attractors: A Menace to the EU Periphery?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 74-91, September.
    26. Citron, Joel-Tomas & Nickelsburg, Gerald, 1987. "Country risk and political instability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 385-392, April.
    27. Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 1995. "Sociopolitical instability, volatility, and the bid-ask spread: Evidence from the free market for dollars in Poland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 225-236, July.
    28. Crowley, Frederick D. & Loviscek, Anthony L., 2002. "Assessing the impact of political unrest on currency returns: A look at Latin America," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 143-153.
    29. Joel I. Deichmann & Abdolreza Eshghi & Dominique M. Haughton & Selin Ayek & Nicholas C. Teebagy, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment in the Eurasian Transition States," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 5-34, January.
    30. Hans Peter Lankes & Nicholas Stern & W Michael Blumenthal & Jiri Weigl, 1999. "Capital Flows to Eastern Europe," NBER Chapters,in: International Capital Flows, pages 57-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Kogut, Bruce & Chang, Sea Jin, 1996. "Platform Investments and Volatility Exchange Rates: Direct Investment in the U.S. by Japanese Electronic Companies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 221-231, May.
    32. Bevan, Alan & Estrin, Saul, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Jan Mišun & Vladimr Tomšk, 2002. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd in or Crowd out Domestic Investment?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 38-56, March.
    34. Alan A. Bevan & Saul Estrin, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 342, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    35. Singh, Harinder & Kwang W. Jun, 1995. "Some new evidence on determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1531, The World Bank.
    36. Petrakos, George & Brada, Josef C, 1989. "Metropolitan Concentration in Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 557-578.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gulcin Elif Yucel, 2014. "FDI and Economic Growth: The Case of Baltic Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 115-134, September.
    2. repec:eee:touman:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:360-376 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:23:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11294-017-9629-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saul Estrin & Milica Uvalic, 2013. "Foreign direct investment into transition economies: Are the Balkans different?," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 4, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    5. Saul Estrin & Milica Uvalic, 2013. "Foreign direct investment into transition economies: Are the Balkans different?," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 64, European Institute, LSE.
    6. Malgorzata Jakubiak & Alina Kudina, 2008. "The Motives and Impediments to FDI in the CIS," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0370, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. M. Ugur Karakaplan & Bilin Neyapti & Selin Sayek, 2005. "Aid and Foreign Direct Investment : International Evidence," Working Papers 0505, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    8. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:19-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Popovici Oana Cristina, 2015. "Assessing Fdi Determinants In Cee Countries During And After Transition," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 113-122, July.
    10. Estrin, Saul & Uvalic, Milica, 2013. "Foreign direct investment into transition economies: are the Balkans different?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Mulaj, Isa, 2009. "Tax reform in emerging transition: Is Kosovo’s Government and NGOs mathematical economics rational?," MPRA Paper 12642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stoian, Carmen & Filippaios, Fragkiskos, 2008. "Dunning's eclectic paradigm: A holistic, yet context specific framework for analysing the determinants of outward FDI: Evidence from international Greek investments," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-367, June.
    13. Ines Kersan-Škabić, 2015. "The Importance of Corporate Taxation for FDI Attractiveness of Southeast European Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 105-122, March.
    14. Betül Gür, 2016. "An Analysis of the Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment and Sociopolitical Factors via the Use of Panel Regression," Eurasian Eononometrics, Statistics and Emprical Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 43-55, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; transition; political instability; political risk;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WDI). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wdumius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.