IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey

Listed author(s):
  • Demir, Firat

The paper analyzes the relationship between financial liberalization and socio-political risk by identifying the inter-dependent nature of socio-political and economic fault lines in three developing countries. Unlike the previous research, the current article suggests that domestic socio-political factors cannot be isolated from the fluctuations taking place in the economic arena. In particular, we examine the effects of short-term capital inflows on the recipient countries by exploring the dynamic relationship between the volatility of such flows and socio-political instability. Accordingly, we endogenize the volatility of short term capital inflows with political risk variables where increasing volatility by disrupting market activities and private investment increases socio-political risk, which further feeds into the volatility of such flows. In the empirical analysis using both the Granger causality tests and a simultaneous-equation approach we uncover a contemporaneous relationship between the volatility of short-term capital inflows and socio-political instability. The results also challenge the previous research regarding their use of political variables as purely exogenous from economic variables. Likewise, the legitimacy of the arguments explaining investor cautiousness vis-à-vis political developments in the developing countries with purely domestic factors also becomes questionable.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1943/1/MPRA_paper_1943.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6835/1/MPRA_paper_6835.pdf
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1943.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1943
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
  3. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
  4. ISMIHAN Mustafa & METIN-OZCAN Kivilcim & TANSEL Aysit, "undated". "Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999," EcoMod2003 330700071, EcoMod.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  6. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
  7. Helliwell, John F., 1994. "Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 225-248, April.
  8. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Buch, Claudia M. & Doepke, Joerg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Financial openness and business cycle volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 744-765, September.
  10. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent C., 2002. "The explanatory power of political risk in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27.
  11. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  12. Oks, Daniel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Mexico after the debt crisis: is growth sustainable?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 155-178, June.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
  14. Feder, Gershon & Uy, Lily V., 1985. "The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 133-156.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
  17. Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-883, August.
  18. Soares, Rodrigo R., 2004. "Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 155-184, February.
  19. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2003. "Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-54, February.
  20. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(1), pages 21-45.
  21. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1994. "Stock Market Volatility and Investment: Do Only Fundamentals Matter?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(242), pages 147-165, May.
  22. Driver, Ciaran & Moreton, David, 1991. "The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1452-1459, November.
  23. Harms, Philipp, 2002. "Poverty and Political Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 250-262, May.
  24. Campos, Nauro F & Nugent, Jeffrey B, 2000. "Investment and Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 2609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Schneider, Friedrich & Frey, Bruno S., 1985. "Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-175, February.
  26. Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Boratav & Ashok Parikh, 2007. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Liberalisation Impact on Growth and Trade in Developing Countries, chapter 10, pages 273-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  27. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
  28. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- ment," NBER Working Papers 2950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Feder, Gershon & Ross, Knud Z, 1982. " Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 679-691, June.
  30. Serven, Luis, 1998. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in developing countries - an empirical investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2035, The World Bank.
  31. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 1996. "Volatility and the Investment Response," NBER Working Papers 5841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Root, Franklin R & Ahmed, Ahmed A, 1979. "Empirical Determinants of Manufacturing Direct Foreign Investment in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(4), pages 751-767, July.
  33. Brunetti, Aymo, 1997. " Political Variables in Cross-Country Growth Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 163-190, June.
  34. Richard B. Freeman, 1994. "Crime and the Job Market," NBER Working Papers 4910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & Daniel Lederman, 2000. "Crime and Victimization: An Economic Perspective," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2000), pages 219-302, August.
  36. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
  37. Moguillansky, Graciela, 2002. "Investment and financial volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  38. Brewer, Thomas L & Rivoli, Pietra, 1990. "Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 357-369, August.
  39. Fleisher, Belton M, 1970. "The Effect of Income on Delinquency: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 257-257, March.
  40. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
  41. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  42. Rivoli, Pietra & Brewer, Thomas L., 1997. "Political instability and country risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 309-321.
  43. Marina Halac & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Distributional effects of crises : the role of financial transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3173, The World Bank.
  44. Marco Terrones & Eswar S Prasad & Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Biswas, Romita, 2002. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 492-504, October.
  46. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-555, June.
  47. David Fielding, 2003. "Modelling Political Instability and Economic Performance: Israeli Investment during the "Intifada"," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(277), pages 159-186, February.
  48. Roberto Frenkel, 2000. "Balance-of-Payments Liberalization: Effects on Growth, Employment and Income in Argentina," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2000-03, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  49. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1943. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.