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The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment


  • Driver, Ciaran
  • Moreton, David


This paper reports the results of including proxies for growth and inflation uncertainty in an accelerator-style investment equation, set up in "error-correction" form, for U.K. manufacturing plant and machinery expenditure. The uncertainty proxies are constructed as cross-section dispersion indices of independent economic forecasts. The results confirm the importance of output growth uncertainty as a (negative) determinant of capital formation. Inflation uncertainty was found to have a short-run influence only. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Driver, Ciaran & Moreton, David, 1991. "The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1452-1459, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:101:y:1991:i:409:p:1452-59

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 321-332.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and Their Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 489-494.
    3. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "A Reexamination of Natural Rate Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 946-960, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Bourdieu & Benoît Coeuré & Béatrice Sédillot, 1997. "Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité. Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 23-53.
    2. Serven, Luis, 1998. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in developing countries - an empirical investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2035, The World Bank.
    3. Recalde, Marina, 2011. "Energy policy and energy market performance: The Argentinean case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3860-3868, June.
    4. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Investment–Uncertainty Relationship," Chapters,in: Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Caruso, Massimo, 2001. "Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 189-217, June.
    6. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 357-381, June.
    7. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 2000. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Sector Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0600, Econometric Society.
    8. Li, Yong & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2011. "When are venture capital projects initiated?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 239-254, March.
    9. Demir, Firat, 2007. "Private Investment and Cash Flow Relationship Revisited: Capital Market Imperfections and Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 3081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    11. Klaus Mohn & Bård Misund, 2011. "Shifting sentiments in firm investment: an application to the oil industry," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 469-479.
    12. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:633-653 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Demir, Firat, 2007. "Private Investment, Portfolio Choice and Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 3835, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2007.
    14. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 3080, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
    15. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Demir, FIrat, 2009. "Financial liberalization, private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 314-324, March.
    17. DemIr, FIrat, 2009. "Capital Market Imperfections and Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets: Private Investment and Cash Flow Relationship Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 953-964, May.
    18. Panagiotis E. Petrakis & Dionysis G. Valsamis & Pantelis C. Kostis, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks in Eurozone Periphery Countries and Germany," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(2), pages 87-106, December.
    19. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit," HWWA Discussion Papers 57, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    20. Stephanie Denis & Prakash Kannan, 2013. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy," IMF Working Papers 13/66, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Driver, Ciaran & Whelan, Brendan, 2001. "The effect of business risk on manufacturing investment: Sectoral survey evidence from Ireland," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 403-412, April.
    22. Cuthbertson, K. & Gasparro, D., 1995. "Fixed investment decisions in UK manufacturing: The importance of Tobin's Q, output and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 919-941, May.
    23. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.

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