Risque politique et croissance en Afrique
[eng] A simple analytical model is presented where the rebellion activity of the political opponent is an increasing function of the prédation and repression activity of the government, and a decreasing function of its redistribution activity. These predictions are tested on national African data, using a probit model, and are not rejected. Lastly it is shown that political risk, measured by the probability of political violence erupting, has a negative impact on economic growth. [fre] On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politique, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique.
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Volume (Year): 47 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994.
"Distributive Politics and Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
- Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani & Alesina, Alberto, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4551798, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Azam, Jean-Paul, 1994. "Democracy and Development: A Theoretical Framework," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 80(3-4), pages 293-305, September.
- Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-883, August.
- Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 351-371, September.
- Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
- Alberto Alesina & Sule Ozler & Nouriel Roubini & Phillip Swagel, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1991. "Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-841, July.
- Azam, Jean-Paul, 1995. "How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(1-2), pages 173-184, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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