Risque politique et croissance en Afrique
[fre] On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politique, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique. [eng] A simple analytical model is presented where the rebellion activity of the political opponent is an increasing function of the prédation and repression activity of the government, and a decreasing function of its redistribution activity. These predictions are tested on national African data, using a probit model, and are not rejected. Lastly it is shown that political risk, measured by the probability of political violence erupting, has a negative impact on economic growth.
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Volume (Year): 47 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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