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Risque politique et croissance en Afrique

  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Jean-Paul Azam
  • Stéphane Calipel
  • Claude Jessua

[eng] A simple analytical model is presented where the rebellion activity of the politi­cal opponent is an increasing function of the prédation and repression activity of the government, and a decreasing function of its redistribution activity. These pre­dictions are tested on national African data, using a probit model, and are not rejected. Lastly it is shown that political risk, measured by the probability of politi­cal violence erupting, has a negative impact on economic growth. [fre] On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politi­que, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 47 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 819-829

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_3_409821
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1996.409821
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  1. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-41, July.
  2. Alesina, Alberto F & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  4. Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-83, August.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 351-71, September.
  7. Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1991. "Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
  9. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Nehru, Vikram & Dhareshwar, Ashok & DEC, 1994. "New estimates of total factor productivity growth for developing and industrial countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1313, The World Bank.
  11. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1994. "Democracy and Development: A Theoretical Framework," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 80(3-4), pages 293-305, September.
  12. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1995. "How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(1-2), pages 173-84, April.
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