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Risque politique et croissance en Afrique


  • Jean-Paul AZAM
  • Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Stéphane CALIPEL

    () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))


On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politique, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul AZAM & Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY & Stéphane CALIPEL, 1996. "Risque politique et croissance en Afrique," Working Papers 199624, CERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:6

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-883, August.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 351-371, September.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    5. Nehru, Vikram & Dhareshwar, Ashok & DEC, 1994. "New estimates of total factor productivity growth for developing and industrial countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1313, The World Bank.
    6. Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1991. "Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    8. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1994. "Democracy and Development: A Theoretical Framework," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 80(3-4), pages 293-305, September.
    9. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-841, July.
    10. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1995. "How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(1-2), pages 173-184, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(1), pages 26-58, March.
    2. Azam, Jean-Paul & Mesnard, Alice, 2003. "Civil War and the Social Contract," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 115(3-4), pages 455-475, June.
    3. Frédéric PUECH, 2002. "Dépenses publiques d’éducation et instabilité politique : une application à la zone franc par un modèle d’Equilibre Général Calculable," Working Papers 200219, CERDI.
    4. Mallaye, Douzounet, 2009. "Reformes Monétaires Et Croissance Économique En Zone Cemac
      [Monetary Reforms And Economic Growth In Cemac Zone]
      ," MPRA Paper 19621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hadhek Zouhaier & Kefi Mohamed Karim, 2012. "Democracy, Investment and Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 233-240.
    6. Mehlum, Halvor & Moene, Karl & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Crime induced poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 325-340, August.
    7. Philippe Hugon, 2003. "Les conflits armés en Afrique : mythes et limites de l'analyse économique," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(176), pages 829-856.

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