IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/seg/012016/v3y2018i2p31-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Nexus Between Industrial Exports And Economic Growth In Tunisia: Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sayef Bakari

    () (University of Tunis El Manar)

  • Mohamed Mabrouki

    () (Higher Institute of Companies Administration University of Gafsa)

  • Asma Elmakki

    () (Higher Institute of Companies Administration University of Gafsa)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in Tunisia. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1969 and 2015 were tested using the Johansen co-integration analysis of Vector Error Correction Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in the long run. Otherwise, and on the basis of the results of the Granger causality test, we noted the absence of a causal relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in the short term. These results provide evidence that industrial exports, thus, are not seen as the source of economic growth in Tunisia and suffer a lot of problems and poor economic strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Asma Elmakki, 2018. "The Nexus Between Industrial Exports And Economic Growth In Tunisia: Empirical Analysis," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(2), pages 31-53, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:seg:012016:v:3:y:2018:i:2:p:31-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jseg.ro/index.php/jseg/article/view/44/44
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Purna Chandra Parida & Pravakar Sahoo, 2007. "Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 155-175.
    3. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Causality between exports and economic growth in South Africa: evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 163-181, April-Jun.
    4. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    5. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    6. Muhammed Islam, 1998. "Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
    7. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    8. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Exports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Gabon," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 40-57, June.
    9. Xu, Zhenhui, 2000. "Effects of Primary Exports on Industrial Exports and GDP: Empirical Evidence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 307-325, October.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    11. Hatem Hatef Abdulkadhim Altaee & Mohamed Khaled Al-Jafari & Masoud Ali Khalid, 2016. "Determinants of Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 83-92, Februa.
    12. Anita Ghatak, 1998. "Vector autoregression modelling and forecasting growth of South Korea," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 579-592, June.
    13. Yapatake Kossele Thales Pacific & Li Jin Shan & Abeid Ahmed Ramadhan, 2017. "Military Expenditure, Export, FDI and Economic Performance in Cameroon," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 577-589, June.
    14. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1994. "Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 214-235, June.
    15. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "Appraisal of Trade Potency on Economic Growth in Sudan: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 213-225, December.
    16. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    17. repec:wei:journl:v:7:y:2017:i:2:p:72-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Aristomene Varoudakis, 1999. "Economic Policy Reform and Growth Prospects in Emerging African Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 145, OECD Publishing.
    19. Yaya KEHO, 2017. "The Exports and Economic Growth Nexus in Cote D ivoire: Evidence from a Multivariate Time Series Analysis," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 135-146, June.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    22. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
    23. Wagan, Shah Mehmood, 2015. "Export boost of Textile Industry of Pakistan by availing EU’s GSP Plus," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 18-27.
    24. Sunde, Tafirenyika, 2017. "Foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 434-444.
    25. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    26. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    27. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    29. Shah Mehmood WAGAN, 2015. "Export boost of textile industry of Pakistan by availing EU’s GSP Plus," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 18-27, March.
    30. Savvides, Andreas, 1995. "Economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-458, March.
    31. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Relationship between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Egypt: Empirical Analysis," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(36), pages 34-43, November.
    32. Ana I. Sanjuán‐López & P. J. Dawson, 2010. "Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 565-583, September.
    33. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    34. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-348, November.
    35. Ghatak, A., 1997. "Vector Autoregression Modelling and Forecasting Growth of South Korea," Department of Economics, De Montford University 97-02, Department of Economics, De Montfort University.
    36. Adel Shakeeb Mohsen, 2015. "Effects of Oil and Non-Oil Exports on the Economic Growth of Syria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 1(2), pages 69-78, June.
    37. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    38. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact Of Domestic Investment On Economic Growth: New Evidence From Malaysia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(2), pages 105-121, September.
    39. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    40. Pacific K. T. Yapatake & Shan J. Li & Ramadhan A. Abeid, 2017. "Military Expenditure, Export, FDI and Economic Performance in Cameroon," CEREDEC Working Papers 17/002, Centre de Recherche pour le Développement Economique (CEREDEC).
    41. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "The Nexus between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Japan," MPRA Paper 76110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Thurlow, James, 2010. "The Role of Agriculture in African Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1375-1383, October.
    44. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki, 2017. "Impact Of Exports And Imports On Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panama," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(1), pages 67-79, March.
    45. Moqeet Ahmed & Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Muhammad Kashif Iqbal & Jibran Khalil, 2014. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Imports, Exports of Goods and Services on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 3(3), pages 155-165, September.
    46. Lanjouw, Jean O. & Lanjouw, Peter, 2001. "The rural non-farm sector: issues and evidence from developing countries," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 1-23, October.
    47. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2012. "Exports, imports and economic growth in China: an ARDL analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 42-55, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wei:journl:v:7:y:2017:i:1:p:40-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Abdelhafidh Othmani, 2018. "The Six Linkages Between Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, Exports, Imports, Labor Force And Economic Growth: New Empirical And Policy Analysis From Nigeria," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(1), pages 25-43, Juin.
    3. Bakari, Sayef & Mabrouki, Mohamed, 2018. "The Impact of Agricultural Trade on Economic Growth in North Africa: Econometric Analysis by Static Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 85116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Exports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Gabon," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 40-57, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial Export; Economic Growth; Cointegration; VECM; Causality; Tunisia.;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:seg:012016:v:3:y:2018:i:2:p:31-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Radu Lixandroiu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.