Manufactured Exports And Economic Growth In Egypt: Cointegration And Causality Analysis
Although it is widely acknowledged that exports, particularly through manufactured components, play an important role as a potential source of economic growth, the relationship between exports and economic growth is still ongoing. This paper contributes to this controversy using cointegration analysis and Error Correction Model (ECM) test to determine the short and long run causality between manufactured exports and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1980-2008 with particular interest to decompose Egypt's manufactured exports into a number of key industries. The empirical results show that bi-direction long-run causality exists not only between exports of manufactured goods as a whole and economic growth but also in case of few Egyptian export industries like textile products, chemical products, fabricated metal products and food-processing. Furthermore, the short run unidirectional causality from exports of some industries to economic growth is explored. The direction of causality from growth to exports was inferred only in the case of chemical products. The main conclusion is that there is a long run circular causality between manufactured exports and economic growth in Egypt. Therefore, adopting vigorous growth policy is expected to stimulate the manufactured exports. However, the export-led policy seems to be a basic tool toward sustained growth in Egypt. Furthermore, emphasis on the composition of manufactured exports should be considered as a main instrument in the export driving growth policy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilhan Ozturk & Ali Acaravci, 2010. "Testing the export-led growth hypothesis:empirical evidence from Turkey," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 245-254, September.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- David Greenaway & Wyn Morgan & Peter Wright, 1999. "Exports, export composition and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 41-51.
- Raymond Riezman & Charles Whiteman & Peter M. Summers, 1996.
"The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth,"
GE, Growth, Math methods
- Riezman, Raymond G & Whiteman, Charles H & Summers, Peter M, 1996. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 77-110.
- Riezman, R.G. & Summers, P.M. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 92-27, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Riezman, R. & Whiteman, C. & Summers, P.M., 1995. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 95-16, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2001.
"The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis,"
134, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
- Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2004. "The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1685-1695.
- Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2001. "The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 1116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yaghmaian, Behzad, 1994. "An empirical investigation of exports, development, and growth in developing countries: Challenging the neoclassical theory of export-led growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1977-1995, December.
- Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
- Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
- Xu, Zhenhui, 1996. "On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 172-84, June.
- Khaled R.M. ELBEYDI & Abdulbaset M. HAMUDA & Vladimir GAZDA, 2010. "The Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 1(1(542)), pages 69-76, January.
- Moschos, Demetrios, 1989. "Export expansion, growth and the level of economic development: An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 93-102, January.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:11:y:2011:i:1_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.