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Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates

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  • Kalaitzi, Athanasia S.
  • Chamberlain, Trevor W.

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1975–2012, using a neoclassical production function augmented with merchandise exports and imports of goods and services. The study applies the Johansen cointegration technique and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, while the multivariate Granger causality test is applied to examine the direction of the short-run causality. In addition, the existence of long-run causality is investigated by applying a modified version of the Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model. The Johansen test and DOLS results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth. In addition, the study provides evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run, while no long-run causality is found to exist.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:103781
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    2. Kalaitzi Athanasia Stylianou & Kherfi Samer & Alrousan Sahel & Katsaiti Marina-Selini, 2022. "Are Non-Primary Exports the Source for Further Economic Growth in the UAE?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, April.
    3. Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "A test of exports-led growth hypothesis in Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from panel data analysis," Working Papers 27170, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    4. Md Ali Emam & Markus Leibrecht & Tinggui Chen, 2021. "Fish Exports and the Growth of the Agricultural Sector: The Case of South and Southeast Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    6. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI01, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    7. N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid for Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-02, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    8. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    9. Maite CANCELO & Emilia VAZQUEZ-ROZAS, 2020. "Las Exportaciones Como Fuente De Crecimiento Económico: Un Modelo Econométrico Para Galicia 2002-2019," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 111-124.
    10. Bimpong, Patrick & Addai, Bismark & Achinah, Solomon Kwadwo, 2022. "Analysis of the causal nexus between mining exports and the environment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AERI0121, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised 25 Aug 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; Exports; Granger causality; UAE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

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