IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

Listed author(s):
  • Dierk Herzer

    ()

    (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University, Frankfurt am Main / Germany)

This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a mere change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to a production function model with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP in developing countries, (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, and (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Evidence from a simple regression analysis suggests that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence, business regulation, and labour regulation, whereas there is no statistically significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb knowledge.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/ibero/working_paper_neu/DB200.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 200.

as
in new window

Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 16 Feb 2010
Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:200
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Platz des Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen

Phone: 0049-551-39 81 72
Fax: 0049-551-39 81 73
Web page: http://www.iai.wiwi.uni-goettingen.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  3. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2006. "Panels with Nonstationary Multifactor Error Structures," CESifo Working Paper Series 1788, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
  5. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  6. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  7. Heller, Peter S. & Porter, Richard C., 1978. "Exports and growth : An empirical re-investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 191-193, June.
  8. Gengenbach Christian & Urbain Jean-Pierre & Westerlund Joakim, 2008. "Panel Error Correction Testing with Global Stochastic Trends," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  9. Dierk Herzer, 2010. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 200, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Westerlund, Joakim & Larsson, Rolf, 2009. "A Note On The Pooling Of Individual Panic Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1851-1868, December.
  11. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Purna Chandra Parida & Pravakar Sahoo, 2007. "Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 155-175.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  14. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-571, November.
  15. Yousif Khalifa Al-Yousif, 1997. "Exports and economic growth:some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 693-697.
  16. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  17. Riezman, Raymond G & Whiteman, Charles H & Summers, Peter M, 1996. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 77-110.
  18. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, 1994. "What does liberalisation do for exports and growth?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(1), pages 152-174, March.
  19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Maharouf Oyolola, 2007. "Export growth and output growth: An application of bounds testing approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 1-11, March.
  21. Herzer, Dierk, 2008. "The long-run relationship between outward FDI and domestic output: Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 146-149, July.
  22. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  24. Reppas, Panayiotis A. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2005. "The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 929-940, November.
  25. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
  26. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
  27. Kunst, Robert M. & Marin, Dalia, 1989. "On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis," Munich Reprints in Economics 3113, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  28. DeJong, D.N. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Case for Trend-Stationarity is Stronger than we Thought," Working Papers 91-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  29. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, 07.
  30. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  31. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, "undated". "What does Liberalisation do for Exports and Growth?," Working Papers ec4/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  32. Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2001. "The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 1116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Banerjee, Anindya & Russell, Bill, 2005. "Inflation and measures of the markup," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 289-306, June.
  34. Robert McNab & Robert Moore, 1998. "Trade policy, export expansion, human capital and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 237-256.
  35. Chuang, Yih-Chyi, 1998. "Learning by Doing, the Technology Gap, and Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 697-721, August.
  36. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October.
  37. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  38. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 51-72, October.
  39. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September.
  40. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  41. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
  42. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
  43. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  44. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  45. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
  46. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Manufacturing exports, mining exports and growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Chile (1960-2001)," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 104, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  47. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
  48. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2006. "Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 683-719, December.
  49. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  50. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
  51. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, "undated". "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data," Working Papers 170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  52. Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-425, January.
  53. Saxonhouse, Gary R, 1976. "Estimated Parameters as Dependent Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 178-183, March.
  54. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1," Econometrics Working Papers 0001, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  55. Jim Love, 1994. "Engines of Growth—The Export and Government Sectors," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 203-218, 03.
  56. Dierk Herzer, 2007. "How does trade composition affect productivity? Evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 909-912.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Jaep)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.