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A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

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  • Dierk Herzer

    () (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University, Frankfurt am Main / Germany)

Abstract

This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a mere change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to a production function model with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP in developing countries, (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, and (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Evidence from a simple regression analysis suggests that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence, business regulation, and labour regulation, whereas there is no statistically significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Dierk Herzer, 2010. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 200, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:200
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    Cited by:

    1. Anca Maria GHERMAN & George ȘTEFAN, 2015. "Exports – trends and impacts on Romania’s economic growth process," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(603), S), pages 43-54, Summer.
    2. repec:agr:journl:v:2(602):y:2015:i:2(602):p:43-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mariam Camarero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Cecilio Tamarit, 2016. "Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 386-408, March.
    4. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    5. Ana Paula Ribeiro & Paula Gracinda Teixeira Santos & Vitor Carvalho, 2013. "Export-led growth in Europe: Where and what to export?," EcoMod2013 5265, EcoMod.
    6. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1150-1163 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Javed, Zanib & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Impact of Export Composition on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 71519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Werner Kristjanpoller & Josephine E. Olson & Rodolfo I. Salazar, 2016. "Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2013. "The Impact of Trade Integration with the European Union on Productivity in a Posttransition Economy: The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 84-104, March.
    10. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic development in Asia: new data and new methods," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 102-125, May.
    11. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2014. "On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(35), pages 4302-4308, December.
    12. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:350-361 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Beata Udvari, 2016. "The Aid for Trade initiative and the export performance of the Iberian EU-countries," IWE Working Papers 225, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies- Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Developing countries; Panel cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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