IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1


  • Judith A. Giles


  • Cara L. Williams


The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centers on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We contribute to this literature in two ways. In this paper, part 1, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than one hundred and fifty export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used to empirically examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings. The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies that focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show, in part 2, that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications - Oxley's (1993) study for Portugal, and Henriques and Sadorsky's (1996) analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1," Econometrics Working Papers 0001, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0001 Note: ISSN 1485-6441

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ivaldi Marc & Mccullough Gerard, 2008. "Subadditivity Tests for Network Separation with an Application to U.S. Railroads," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Asai, Sumiko, 2006. "Scale economies and scope economies in the Japanese broadcasting market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 321-331, September.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Geweke, John & Wolfe, Michael, 1991. "Seminonparametric Bayesian estimation of the asymptotically ideal production model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 5-50.
    4. Jan Larsson, 2003. "Testing the Multiproduct Hypothesis on Norwegian Aluminium Industry Plants," Discussion Papers 350, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Diewert, W E & Wales, T J, 1988. "Normalized Quadratic Systems of Consumer Demand Functions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 303-312, July.
    6. Baumol, William J, 1982. "Contestable Markets: An Uprising in the Theory of Industry Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Stewart, Kenneth G & Jones, J C H, 1998. "Hedonics and Demand Analysis: The Implicit Demand for Player Attributes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 192-202, April.
    8. Kenneth Stewart & J. Jones, 2010. "Are sports teams multiproduct firms?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 487-514, October.
    9. Diewert, Walter E & Wales, Terence J, 1987. "Flexible Functional Forms and Global Curvature Conditions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 43-68, January.
    10. Blackorby, Charles & Primont, Daniel & Russell, R. Robert, 1977. "On testing separability restrictions with flexible functional forms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 195-209, March.
    11. Ludo Peeters & Yves Surry, 2000. "Incorporating Price-Induced Innovation in a Symmetric Generalised McFadden Cost Function with Several Outputs," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 53-70, July.
    12. Diewert, W. E. & Wales, T. J., 1995. "Flexible functional forms and tests of homogeneous separability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 259-302, June.
    13. Hall, Robert E, 1973. "The Specification of Technology with Several Kinds of Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 878-892, July-Aug..
    14. Chambers,Robert G., 1988. "Applied Production Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314275, March.
    15. repec:bpj:rneart:v:7:y:2008:i:1:p:159-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Donald G. Ferguson & J. C. H. Jones & Kenneth G. Stewart, 2000. "Competition Within A Cartel: League Conduct And Team Conduct In The Market For Baseball Player Services," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 422-430, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    economic growth; export promotion; causality; time series models; cointegration; innovation accounting.;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Graham Voss). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.