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Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran

Abstract

This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with a multifactor error structure where the unobserved common factors are (possibly) correlated with exogenously given individual-specific regressors, and the factor loadings differ over the cross section units. The basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to filter the individual-specific regressors by means of (weighted) cross-section aggregates such that asymptotically as the cross-section dimension (N) tends to infinity the differential effects of unobserved common factors are eliminated. The estimation procedure has the advantage that it can be computed by OLS applied to an auxiliary regression where the observed regressors are augmented by (weighted) cross sectional averages of the dependent variable and the individual specific regressors. Two different but related problems are addressed: one that concerns the coefficients of the individual-specific regressors, and the other that focusses on the mean of the individual coefficients assumed random. In both cases appropriate estimators, referred to as common correlated effects (CCE) estimators, are proposed and their asymptotic distribution as N ¨ ‡, with T (the time-series dimension) fixed or as N and T¨ ‡ (jointly) are derived under different regularity conditions. One important feature of the proposed CCE mean group (CCEMG) estimator is its invariance to the (unknown but fixed) number of unobserved common factors as N and T¨ ‡ (jointly). The small sample properties of the various pooled estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments that confirm the theoretical derivations and show that the pooled estimators have generally satisfactory small sample properties even for relatively small values of N and T.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1331
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    2. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008.
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    12. Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 0. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-38.
    14. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor, 2003. "A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 311-352, April.
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    16. Ahn, Seung Chan & Hoon Lee, Young & Schmidt, Peter, 2001. "GMM estimation of linear panel data models with time-varying individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 219-255, April.
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    19. Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1993. "The Role of Sectoral Interactions in Wage Determination in the UK Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 21-55, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Smith, Ron, 2006. "Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2361-2380, May.
    2. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    4. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "A stochastic discount factor approach to asset pricing using panel data," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 628, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," Working Papers 536, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
    7. Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, September.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 1659, CESifo.
    9. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R.P & Yamagata. T. & Hvozdyk, L., 2006. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0634, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2019. "Political Risk and Real Exchange Rate: What can we Learn from Recent Developments in Panel Data Econometrics for Emerging and Developing Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7443, CESifo.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    12. Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0405, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    13. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2009. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: The bias-corrected average forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 153-164, October.
    14. Castagnetti, Carolina & Rossi, Eduardo, 2008. "Estimation methods in panel data models with observed and unobserved components: a Monte Carlo study," MPRA Paper 26196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Liudmyla Hvozdyk, 2006. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures," CESifo Working Paper Series 1704, CESifo.
    16. Jerry Coakley & Stuart Snaith, 2006. "Testing for symmetry and proportionality in a European panel," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 63-71.
    17. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2005. "Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0524, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    18. Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao, 2005. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 75, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    19. Terry Barker & Sebastian de-Ramon, 2006. "Testing the representative agent assumption: the distribution of parameters in a large-scale model of the EU 1972-1998," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 395-398.
    20. Abdullah Noman, 2008. "Testing for PPP in the mean-group panel rgression framework: further evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(20), pages 1-12.
    21. Peter Pedroni & Tim Vogelsang, 2005. "Robust Unit Root and Cointegration Rank Tests for Panels and Large Systems," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    22. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 1416, CESifo.

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    Keywords

    cross section dependence; large panels; common correlated effects; heterogeneity; estimation and inference;

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