IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration

  • Binder, Michael
  • Hsiao, Cheng
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem

This paper considers estimation and inference in panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) with fixed effects when the time dimension of the panel is finite, and the cross-sectional dimension is large. A Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator based on a transformed likelihood function is proposed and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed irrespective of the unit root and cointegrating properties of the underlying PVAR model. The transformed likelihood framework is also used to derive unit root and cointegration tests in panels with short time dimension; these tests have the attractive feature that they are based on standard chi-squared and normal distributed statistics. Examining Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimation as an alternative to our proposed ML estimator, it is shown that conventional GMM estimators based on standard orthogonality conditions break down if the underlying time series contain unit roots.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0266466605050413
File Function: link to article abstract page
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 04 (August)
Pages: 795-837

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:04:p:795-837_05
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK

Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_ECT
Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hahn, Jinyong, 1999. "How informative is the initial condition in the dynamic panel model with fixed effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 309-326, December.
  4. Pesaran,H.M. & Shin,Y., 1995. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  7. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  8. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  9. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
  11. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  12. Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
  13. Pesaran, M. H. & Binder, M., 1997. "Solution of Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models and Large Sparse Linear Systems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9708, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  14. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  15. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  17. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
  18. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  19. Arellano, Manuel & Honore, Bo, 2001. "Panel data models: some recent developments," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 53, pages 3229-3296 Elsevier.
  20. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
  21. Pesaran, H.M., 2003. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0305, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  22. Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Autoregressive modeling and causal ordering of economic variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 243-259, November.
  23. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
  24. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  25. Wansbeek, Tom & Bekker, Paul, 1996. "On IV, GMM and ML in a dynamic panel data model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 145-152, May.
  26. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Generalized Least Squares with an Estimated Autocovariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 723-32, July.
  27. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview of Some Recent Developments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1221, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  28. Phillips, Peter & Sul, Donggyu, 2002. "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogenity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence," Working Papers 194, Department of Economics, The University of Auckland.
  29. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:16 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  31. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Donald, Stephen G & Newey, Whitney K, 2001. "Choosing the Number of Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1161-91, September.
  33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  34. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  36. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  37. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1997. "Efficient estimation of dynamic panel data models: Alternative assumptions and simplified estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 309-321.
  38. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  39. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  40. Bhargava, Alok & Sargan, J D, 1983. "Estimating Dynamic Random Effects Models from Panel Data Covering Short Time Periods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1635-59, November.
  41. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  42. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  43. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
  44. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, Hashem, 2000. "Solution of finite-horizon multivariate linear rational expectations models and sparse linear systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 325-346, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:04:p:795-837_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.