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The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

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  • Abu-Qarn, Aamer
  • Abu-Bader, Suleiman

Abstract

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, our results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When we examine only manufactured exports, we find no support for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2001. "The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 1116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Helmi Hamdi & Rashid Sbia & Hakimi Abdelaziz & Wafa Khlaifia hakimi, 2013. "Multivariate Granger causality between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1193-1203.
    2. Nasri Harb, 2009. "Oil Exports, Non-Oil GDP, and Investment in the GCC Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 695-708, November.
    3. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    4. Dizaji, S.F., 2012. "Exports, government size and economic growth (Evidence from Iran as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 535, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    5. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export-Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328.
    6. repec:mir:mirbus:v:7:y:2017:i:4:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," MPRA Paper 1113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Seyyed Jafar Zonoozi & Soghra Rezai Nasab, 2015. "Assessment of Herbal Extract Industry in West Azerbaijan Province," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(7), pages 947-958, July.
    9. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," MPRA Paper 1113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alimi, Santos R. & Muse, Bernard O., 2012. "Export - led growth or growth – driven exports? Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira & Cristiane Soares, 2015. "Export-led growth vs growth-led exports: what matters for the Brazilian growth experience after trade liberalization?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 108-128, January.
    12. Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 739-749, September.
    13. Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2011. "Manufactured Exports And Economic Growth In Egypt: Cointegration And Causality Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    14. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2007. "Manufacturing exports, mining exports and growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Chile (1960-2001)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 153-167.
    15. Saten Kumar, 2011. "Estimating export demand equations in selected Asian countries," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-16, February.
    16. Sheila Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, 2006. "What a difference a source makes! An analysis of export data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 35-39.
    17. Husein, J, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis In The Mena Region: A Multivariate Cointegration, Causality And Stability Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ELG; MENA; Middle East and North Africa; economic growth; export promotion; Granger causality; cointegration; error correction model;

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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