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Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework

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  • Jim Love
  • Ramesh Chandra

Abstract

Most time-series studies in the area of export-led growth adopt a bivariate framework and neglect the role of terms of trade. Because the terms of trade have an important bearing on export earnings and income, the underlying models of these studies may have been misspecified. This study is the first to adopt a multivariate framework for South Asia as a region; and by including the terms of trade as an additional variable it tries to correct the misspecification bias of earlier studies. The evidence suggests bidirectional causality between real exports and real income in India, export-led growth in Pakistan and a no-causality result for Sri Lanka. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester, 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:72:y:2004:i:4:p:483-496
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    1. -, 2007. "Economic growth with equity: challenges for Latin America," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1935 edited by Eclac, November.
    2. Inoue Takeshi, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Aggregate Export Demand Function in Post-Liberalization India," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, June.
    3. Akmal, Muhammad Shahbaz & Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Muhammad, 2009. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," MPRA Paper 16043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2007. "Financial globalization: from crises-prone to development-friendly?," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1939, November.
    5. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    6. Pinheiro, Armando Castelar & Bonelli, Regis, 2007. "Financial development, growth and equity in Brazil," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1941, November.
    7. Neena MALHOTRA & Deepika KUMARI, 2016. "Revisiting Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: An Empirical Study On South Asia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 157-168.
    8. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2005. "Reformas para América Latina después del fundamentalismo neoliberal," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1888 edited by Cepal, November.
    9. Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 603-617.
    10. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
    11. Agosin, Manuel R., 2007. "Trade and growth: why Asia grows faster than Latin America," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1940, November.
    12. Chaudhry, Azam & Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder, 2013. "A structural VAR analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on Pakistan's textile exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 302-315.
    13. Mousumi Bhattacharya & Sharad Nath Bhattacharya, 2011. "The Interrelationship Between Merchandise Trade, Economic Growth and FDI Inflows in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(2), pages 229-244.
    14. Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Wizarat, Shahida & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2013. "Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 654-660.
    15. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
    16. Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    17. Zahid Asghar, 2011. "A Structural Approach for Testing Causality," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, September.
    18. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197, September.
    19. Tronzano, Marco, 2010. "Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(2), pages 217-244.
    20. Anwesha Aditya & Rajat Acharyya, 2012. "Does What Countries Export Matter? The Asian And Latin American Experience," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 47-74, September.
    21. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2007. "The dual divergence: growth successes and collapses in the developing world since 1980," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1938, November.
    22. Kacef, Osvaldo & Machinea, José Luis, 2007. "Growth and equity: in search of the empty box""," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1936, November.
    23. Tronzano, Marco, 2011. "“Finance and Growth: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence for the Indian Economy” - Finanza e crescita: un riesame dell’evidenza empirica nel caso dell’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 329-364.
    24. Akbay O. S., 2011. "Trade-Growth Nexus: Turkish Case," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 28, pages 108-114, May.
    25. Greenwell Collins Matchaya & Pius Chilonda & Sibusiso Nhelengethwa, 2013. "International Trade and Income in Malawi: A Co-integration and Causality Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(2), pages 125-147, September.

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