IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v6y2018i2p22-d139116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Alper Aslan

    (Department of Economics, Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University, Nevsehir 50300, Turkey)

  • Ebru Topcu

    (Department of Economics, Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University, Nevsehir 50300, Turkey)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of sectoral exports on economic growth in Turkey over the period 2000–2015. To this end, empirical models are estimated using panel data techniques in which quarterly data are gathered for eight sectors. Findings in the case of the pooled panel indicate the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis. Disaggregated evidences, on the other hand, reveal the validity of export-led growth hypothesis in the case of (i) agriculture and forestry; (ii) fishing; (iii) mining and quarrying; (iv) manufacturing; (v) electricity, gas and water supply; and (vi) wholesale and retail trade while it is found to be invalid in the case of (i) real estate, renting and business activities; and (ii) other community, social and personal service activities. The sectors that have the highest growth contributions are listed as follows: (i) agriculture and forestry; (ii) mining and quarrying; and (iii) manufacturing. Causality results also provide a strong support in favor of an export-led growth hypothesis for four sectors in addition to the feedback hypothesis which is valid for three sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Alper Aslan & Ebru Topcu, 2018. "The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:22-:d:139116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/6/2/22/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/6/2/22/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2004. "The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1685-1695.
    2. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    3. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    4. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 229-235.
    5. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-872, December.
    6. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    8. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    9. Purna Chandra Parida & Pravakar Sahoo, 2007. "Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 155-175.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    11. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-33, January.
    12. Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
    13. Khalid Yousif Khalafalla & Alan Webb, 2001. "Export-led growth and structural change: evidence from Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1703-1715.
    14. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
    15. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    16. Werner R & Josephine Olson, 2014. "Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: Is It Based on Export-Led or Import-Led Growth?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S1), pages 6-20.
    17. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "International Trade with Endogenous Technological Change," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 2, pages 33-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    19. Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-425, January.
    20. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    21. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    22. Ali F. Darrat, 1986. "Trade and Development: The Asian Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 695-699, Fall.
    23. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.
    24. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    25. Indra Nurcahyo Sjarif & Koji Kotani & Ching-Yang Lin, 2011. "Exports and economic growth in Indonesia's fishery sub-sector: Cointegration and error-correction models," Working Papers EMS_2011_16, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    26. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1999. "Export-led growth and the US economy: some further testing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 169-172.
    27. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    28. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan, 1998. "Export-led growth hypothesis: cointegration and causality analysis for Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 699-701.
    29. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Julia Wörz, 2005. "On Export Composition and Growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 33-49, April.
    30. Urvashi Dhawan & Bagala Biswal, 1999. "Re-examining export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration analysis for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 525-530.
    31. Francis Teal & Markus Eberhardt, 2010. "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production," Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    32. Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1.
    33. Sadorsky, Perry, 2014. "The effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 147-153.
    34. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    35. Heller, Peter S. & Porter, Richard C., 1978. "Exports and growth : An empirical re-investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 191-193, June.
    36. Erich Gundlach, 2007. "The Solow model in the empirics of growth and trade," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 25-44, Spring.
    37. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    38. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 51-72, October.
    39. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    40. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. M. Imam Alam, 2003. "Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 85-105.
    42. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    43. Shafiullah, Muhammad & Selvanathan, Saroja & Naranpanawa, Athula, 2017. "The role of export composition in export-led growth in Australia and its regions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 62-76.
    44. Awokuse, Titus O. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 184-190, January.
    45. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
    46. Fajana, Olufemi, 1979. "Trade and growth: The Nigerian experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-78, January.
    47. Dominick Salvatore, 1983. "A Simultaneous Equations Model of Trade and Development with Dynamic Policy Simulations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 66-90, August.
    48. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    49. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1988. "Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 3(1), pages 27-57, January.
    50. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
    51. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    52. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
    53. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    54. Ben-David, Dan & B. Loewy, Michael, 2003. "Trade and the Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 18, pages 1-16.
    55. Eberhardt, Markus & Bond, Stephen, 2009. "Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator," MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2001. "Time-series evidence for Balassa's export-led growth hypothesis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 355-365.
    57. Werner Kristjanpoller R & Josephine E. Olson, 2014. "Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: Is It Based on Export-Led or Import-Led Growth?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1S), pages 6-20, January.
    58. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    59. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    61. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
    62. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Ousama Ben-Salha & Abir Abid & Ghassen El Montasser, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1194-1226, June.
    3. Dmitriy Izotov, 2018. "Influence of Foreign Economic Activity on the Economic Growth of Russian Regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1450-1462.
    4. Md. Saiful Islam, 2023. "Does an export‐led growth proposition exist for Bangladesh's ready‐made garments sector? A nonlinear ARDL approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 939-955, June.
    5. Emrah İ. Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2019. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Rolling Frequency Domain Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, May.
    6. ONOSE, Okpeku Lilian & Aras, Osman Nuri, 2021. "Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?," MPRA Paper 108350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei & Ebenezer Boateng & Zangina Isshaq & Anthony Adu-Asare Idun & Peterson Owusu Junior & Anokye M Adam, 2021. "Financial sector and economic growth amid external uncertainty shocks: Insights into emerging economies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Klimis Vogiatzoglou, 2019. "Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 168-191, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    2. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    3. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    4. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:084 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    6. Waithe, Kimberly & Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian, 2010. "Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico," MPRA Paper 95557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    8. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    9. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    10. Pushpa Trivedi & Narayan Chandra Pradhan, 2010. "Exports and Growth Nexus in India: An Econometric Analysis," Millennial Asia, , vol. 1(1), pages 97-121, January.
    11. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    12. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Causality between exports and economic growth in South Africa: evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 163-181, April-Jun.
    13. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
    14. M.A.B. Siddique & E.A. Selvanathan, 1999. "Export Performance and Economic Growth: Co-integration and causality analysis for Malaysia, 1966-96," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 99-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2010. "International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 20(3-4), pages 5-29.
    16. M.A.B. Siddique & E.A. Selvanathan, 1998. "Export Performance and Economic Development in Thailand," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 98-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    17. Abdullahi Ahmed & Enjiang Cheng & George Messinis, 2011. "The role of exports, FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3719-3731.
    18. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    20. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    21. Turan Subasat, 2003. "Does the Dollar Index Really Measure Outward Orientation?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 309-326.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:22-:d:139116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.