Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs
This paper explores the causal relationship between real exports and GDP growth in Japan using two recently developed causal modelling approaches. Using Japanese time series, the paper employed the augmented VAR methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger non-causality. Then, a more recently developed technique of directed acyclic graphs (DAG) was also used in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression (VAR). In contrast to prior analyses, the application of DAG techniques allows for the examination of both contemporaneous and dynamic causal structure of the exports-productivity nexus. The empirical results reveal that the causal path between exports and GDP growth in Japan is bi-directional. Furthermore, other variables such as capital and foreign output are also significant determinants of productivity growth in Japan.
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 14 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hausman, Jerry A., 2003. "Triangular structural model specification and estimation with application to causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 107-113, January.
- Swanson, N.R. & Granger, C.W.J., 1994. "Impulse Response Functions Based on Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalization in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 9-94-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Titus O. Awokuse, 2003.
"Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2002. "Is The Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid For Canada?," Staff Papers 15823, University of Delaware, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
- Marin, Dalia, 1992.
"Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-88, November.
- Marin, Dalia, 1990. "Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," Munich Reprints in Economics 3112, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001.
"Causality in Macroeconomics,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452175, October.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
- Boltho, Andrea, 1996. "Was Japanese Growth Export-Led?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 415-32, July.
- Grabowski, Richard & Sharma, Subhash C. & Dhakal, Dharmendra, 1990. "Exports and Japanese economic development," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 127-132, February.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-33, January.
- Dan Ben-David & Michael B. Loewy, 1997.
"Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence,"
NBER Working Papers
6095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:14:p:849-858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.