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Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in France: evidence from cointegration analysis and Granger causality with using geostatistical models

  • Amiri, Arshia
  • Gerdtham, Ulf-G

This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961-2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locations and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledge is used for economic analyzes. In classical econometrics there do not exist any estimator which have the capability to find the best functional form in the estimation. Geostatistical models investigate simultaneous linear and various nonlinear types of causality test, which cause to decrease the effects of choosing functional form in autoregressive model. This approach imitates the Granger definition and structure but improve it to have better ability to investigate nonlinear causality. Results of both VEC and Improved-VEC (with geostatistical methods) are similar and show existance of long run unidirectional causality from exports and imports to economic growth. However the F-statistic of improved-VEC is larger than VEC indicating that there are some exponential and spherical functions in the VEC structure instead of the linear form.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34190/1/MPRA_paper_34190.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34190.

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Date of creation: 10 Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34190
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  1. Marin, Dalia, 1990. "Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hill, Tim & Marquez, Leorey & O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William, 1994. "Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-15, June.
  4. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
  5. Edward F. Buffie, 1992. "On the Condition for Export-Led Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 211-25, February.
  6. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  8. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-98, March.
  9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1976. "The use of R2 to determine the appropriate transformation of regression variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-210, August.
  10. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  11. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  12. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
  13. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
  14. Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
  15. Oxley, Les, 1993. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal, 1865-1985," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 163-166.
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