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A Simultaneous Equations Model of Trade and Development with Dynamic Policy Simulations

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  • Dominick Salvatore

Abstract

This article seeks to help resolve the serious theoretical controversy about the contribution of international trade to economic development by constructing a simultaneous‐equations model that captures the most important quantitative aspects of the relationship between trade and development, and testing it by pooling data for 52 nations (representing all of the developing nations for which the required data are available) from 1961 to the present. The model is estimated by Full Information Maximum Likelihood, validated by dynamic simulation and utilized for policy and other counterfactual simulations. By the use of dummy variables and Chow tests, shifts of the structural relationships and slope coefficients over time are also tested for. The study finds strong empirical support for trade being very important for development, but to be more in the nature of a handmaiden than of an engine of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominick Salvatore, 1983. "A Simultaneous Equations Model of Trade and Development with Dynamic Policy Simulations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 66-90, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:36:y:1983:i:1:p:66-90
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1983.tb02661.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Pandey, Alok Kumar, 2008. "Globalization and WTO: Impact on India’s economic growth and export," MPRA Paper 16104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tripathi, Janhavi Shankar, 2023. "Trade-growth nexus: A study of G20 countries using simultaneous equations model with dynamic policy simulations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 806-816.
    3. Aleh Mazol, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 32, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    4. Alper Aslan & Ebru Topcu, 2018. "The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    6. Linhui Yu & Sai Wang & Jinwen Cheng & Lihong Yang, 2022. "Trade direction, market access and regional wage inequality: An explanation based on asymmetric trade costs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 895-913, March.
    7. Farahane, Matias Jaime & Heshmati, Almas, 2020. "Trade and Economic Growth: Theories and Evidence from the Southern African Development Community," GLO Discussion Paper Series 657, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Mohammad Afzal, 2006. "Causality between exports, world income and economic growth in Pakistan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 63-77.
    9. Salvatore, Dominick, 2023. "A simultaneous equations model of the relationship between international trade, and economic growth and development with dynamic policy simulations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 789-805.
    10. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    12. Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Wizarat, Shahida & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2013. "Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 654-660.
    13. Anusorn Tamajai, . "The Impact of Capital Inflows of Asian Economic Growth," Fordham Economics Dissertations, Fordham University, Department of Economics, number 2000.4.
    14. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2003. "Exports and Economic Growth in Namibia, 1968-1992," Development and Comp Systems 0307004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    16. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2012. "Modelling Trade, Investment, Growth and Liberalisation: Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 187-208.

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