Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries
In this paper we examine trade-growth nexus using data from six Asian countries. We apply the ADF unit root test to check for stationarity; and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for a long-run relationship among exports, imports and economic growth. For the direction of causality, we implement the modified Granger Causality test. We find that the export-led growth model is relevant to all countries except Pakistan, while the import-led growth model is relevant to all countries. The growth-led export model applies to all countries except Bangladesh and Nepal. The growth-led import model and export–import model are relevant for all countries in the sample. The results show that domestic and overseas demand contribute to economic growth and employment generation. Growth accruals through import-led model augur well for the countries studied. Our findings point to the potential for growth through tapping domestic demand in the event of global recession. It also appears that opportunities of joint catering for domestic demand through south–south trade expansion are possible.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1998. "Are the U.S. Exports to and Imports from Japan Cointegrated?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 626-643.
- Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
- Singer, Hans W. & Gray, Patricia, 1988. "Trade policy and growth of developing countries: some new data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-403, March.
- Arif Billah Dar & Niyati Bhanja & Amaresh Samantaraya & Aviral Kumar Tiwari@, 2013. "Export Led Growth or Growth Led Export Hypothesis in India: Evidence Based on Time-Frequency Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(7), pages 869-880, July.
- Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-872, December.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
- Amirkhalkhali, Saleh & Dar, Atul A., 1995. "A varying-coefficients model of export expansion, factor accumulation and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country, time series data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 435-441, October.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011.
"Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence,"
Asian Economic and Financial Review,
Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197, September.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Pervaz, Azeem & Ahmad, Khalil, 2011. "Exports-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan: further evidence," MPRA Paper 33617, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2011.
- Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-425, January.
- Jai Mah, 2005. "Export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 105-107.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, 07.
- Heller, Peter S. & Porter, Richard C., 1978. "Exports and growth : An empirical re-investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 191-193, June.
- Voivodas, Constantin S., 1973. "Exports, foreign capital inflow and economic growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 337-349, November.
- Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
- Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
- De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
- Jose De Gregorio, 1991. "Economic Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 91/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
- Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
- Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 1996. "Primary Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 465-475, 07.
- Salvatore, Dominick, 1983. "A Simultaneous Equations Model of Trade and Development with Dynamic Policy Simulations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 66-90.
- Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
- Alam, M Shahid, 1991. "Trade Orientation and Macroeconomic Performance in LDCs: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 839-848, July.
- Ramesh Chandra, 2003. "Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 73-86, September.
- Abdulla S. Al-Khulaifi, 2013. "Exports and Imports in Qatar: Evidence from Cointegration and Error Correction Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(9), pages 1122-1133, September.
- Katircioglu, Salih & Eminer, Fehiman & Aga, Mehmet & Ozyigit, Ahmet, 2010. "Trade and Growth in the Pacific Islands - Empirical Evidence from the Bounds Test to Level Relationships and Granger Causality Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 88-101, December.
- Otani, Ichiro & Villanueva, Delano, 1990. "Long-term growth in developing countries and its determinants: An empirical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 769-783, June.
- Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "New evidence on export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 801-803.
- Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
- Robert McNab & Robert Moore, 1998. "Trade policy, export expansion, human capital and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 237-256.
- Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2012. "Exports, imports and economic growth in China: an ARDL analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 42-55, February.
- Dodaro, Santo, 1991. "Comparative advantage, trade and growth: Export-Led growth revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(9), pages 1153-1165, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:654-660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.