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Causality between exports, world income and economic growth in Pakistan

  • Mohammad Afzal
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    This paper investigates the direction of causation between GDP representing economic growth, exports and its different categories, imports and world income. After experiencing vigorous import-substitution in the past decades, Pakistan adopted an outward-looking strategy in the late 1980s with an emphasis on export promotion. A strong and stable relationship between GDP and exports and bi-directional causality between manufactured exports and GDP has been found. Export promotion policy is pursued consistently with an emphasis on manufactured exports and this is most likely to contribute adequately to economic growth in the long run.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10168730500515399
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 63-77

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:20:y:2006:i:1:p:63-77
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    1. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    5. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    6. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    7. Zafar Mahmood & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1992. "Foreign Trade Regime and Savings in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 883-893.
    8. Salvatore, Dominick, 1983. "A Simultaneous Equations Model of Trade and Development with Dynamic Policy Simulations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 66-90.
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