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Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications

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The paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications. Issues such as, spurious regression, unit roots, cointegration, persistence, causality, structural time series methods, including time varying parameter models, are introduced as are the estimation and testing implications that they involve. Applications include a discussion of the timing and potential causes of the British Industrial Revolution, income „convergence? and the long run behaviour of English Real Wages 1264 – 1913. Finally some new and potentially useful developments are discussed including the mildly explosive processes; graphical modelling and long memory.

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  • David Grreasley, 2010. "Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications," Working Papers in Economics 10/56, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/56
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    Cited by:

    1. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(06), pages 674-698, December.
    2. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    4. Carlos Bastos Pinkusfeld & Eduardo F. Bastian & Julia De Medeiros Braga & Ricardo Bielschowsky, 2018. "Some Stylized Facts On External Shocks And Inflation Upsurge In Brazil, 1951-1985," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 25, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Matthew Gibbons & Les Oxley, 2017. "The Relationship of Patenting Applications and Expenditure with Output and Real GDP in Nineteenth Century Colonial New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/05, University of Waikato.
    6. Javier Mejía, 2015. "The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics (La evolución de la historia económica desde 1950: de cliometría hasta cliodinámica)," TIEMPO & ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE BOGOTA JORGE TADEO LOZANO, vol. 2(2), pages 79, December.
    7. Mubashir Qasim & Les Oxley & Eoin McLaughlin, 2018. "Genuine Savings as a Test of New Zealand Weak Sustainability," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2018-01, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Working Papers PKWP1805, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG).
    10. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Rabinovich, Joel & Reddy, Niall, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.

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    Keywords

    Time series; cointegration; unit roots; persistence; causality; cliometrics; convergence; long memory; graphical modelling; British Industrial Revolution;

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O56 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Oceania
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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