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Structural change and unit root testing: British industrial production 1700-1913

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  • David Greasley
  • Les Oxley

Abstract

This paper considers unit root tests of the index of British industrial production 1700-1913. For the full sample the data are found to be I(1). However, three distinct phases are identified with alternating stationarity properties. One period, 1780-1851, is identified as the British Industrial Revolution. The results support the findings of Perron (1989) and Reichlin (1989) on the dangers of unit root testing in models with structural change.

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  • David Greasley & Les Oxley, 1994. "Structural change and unit root testing: British industrial production 1700-1913," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 39-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:1:y:1994:i:3:p:39-40
    DOI: 10.1080/135048594358267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Structural change and unit root econometrics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 231-233, December.
    2. Walton, David R., 1988. "Does GNP have a unit root? : Evidence for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 219-224.
    3. Hausman, William J. & Watts, James M., 1980. "Structural change in the 18th-century British economy: A test using cubic splines," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 400-410, October.
    4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Inwood, Kris & Stengos, Thanasis, 1991. "Discontinuities in Canadian economic growth, 1870-1985," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 274-286, July.
    8. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    9. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.

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