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Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Darné
  • Claude Diebolt

Abstract

In this paper, infrequent large temporary and permanent shocks that have affected the quarterly GDP series for France, the United Kingdom and the United States are analyzed in the post World War II period using the outlier method. Strong proof of permanent and/or transitory shocks are found, resulting from (national and international) economic, political and monetary events. We show that the persistence in GDP for France and the United States is associated to infrequent large shocks as well as permanent shocks that are assumed to be randomly generated every observation period as in the case of a random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_161_0065
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Econometric history of wages in France [Économétrie historique des salaires en France]," Post-Print halshs-03394949, HAL.
    2. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "The payroll of the Germany: 1810-1989 [La masse salariale de l'Allemagne: 1810-1989]," Post-Print hal-01744546, HAL.
    3. Jean-Daniel Boyer & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Sylvie Rivot, 2017. "Prix du blé, régulations et croissance économique : L’analyse cliométrique permet-elle de trancher le débat sur les bleds des années 1750?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-29, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Jean Luc de Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2007. "Aggregate Wage Earnings in Germany: 1810-1989. New Measurement and Cliometric Analysis of Shocks," Working Papers 07-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Diebolt, Claude & Parent, Antoine, 2008. "Bimetallism: The "rules of the game"," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 288-302, July.
    6. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "A Cliometric Reading of the Development of Primary Education in France in the Nineteenth Century," Working Papers 02-22, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2008. "New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 719-737, December.
    8. Claude DIEBOLT & Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "Économétrie historique des salaires en France: une relecture des années charnières," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1293-1308, Août.
    9. Claude DIEBOLT & Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "La masse salariale de l'Allemagne: 1810-1989. Nouvelle mesure et analyse cliométrique des chocs," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1269-1292, Août.
    10. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2013. "L’évolution des inégalités dans l’enseignement supérieur universitaire français au XXème siècle," Post-Print hal-01753405, HAL.
    11. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2011. "L’évolution des inégalités dans l’enseignement supérieur universitaire français. L’influence des réformes institutionnelles et des ruptures économiques," Working Papers 11-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    12. Claude Diebolt & Olivier Darné, 2005. "Cliometrics of Academic Careers and the Impact of Infrequent Large Shocks in Germany before 1945," Post-Print hal-00279246, HAL.
    13. Claude Diebolt, 2020. "L’idée de régulation dans les sciences : hommage à l’épistémologue Jean Piaget," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(4), pages 509-517.
    14. Claude Diebolt & Antoine Parent, 2006. "Were there Anomalies in the Sterling-Franc Exchange Rate Regulation during the Mid-19th Century?," Working Papers 06-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    15. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Faustine Perrin, 2020. "Scolarisation de masse des garçons et des filles. Financement public de l’instruction primaire et croissance économique en France au XIXème siècle," Working Papers of BETA 2020-51, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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