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Forecasting in the presence of large shocks

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  • Phillips, Robert F.

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  • Phillips, Robert F., 1996. "Forecasting in the presence of large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1581-1608.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:20:y:1996:i:9-10:p:1581-1608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruud, Paul A., 1991. "Extensions of estimation methods using the EM algorithm," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 305-341, September.
    2. Newey, Whitney K, 1991. "Uniform Convergence in Probability and Stochastic Equicontinuity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1161-1167.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    4. Phillips, Robert F., 1991. "A constrained maximum-likelihood approach to estimating switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 241-262.
    5. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Structural change and unit root econometrics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 231-233, December.
    6. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-378, June.
    7. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
    8. Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1991. "Shifting trends, segmented trends, and infrequent permanent shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-85, August.
    9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The HUMP-Shaped Behavior of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 707-727.
    11. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
    12. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    13. Bates, Charles & White, Halbert, 1985. "A Unified Theory of Consistent Estimation for Parametric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 151-178, August.
    14. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    15. Phillips, Robert F., 1994. "Partially adaptive estimation via a normal mixture," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 123-144.
    16. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 71-84.

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