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Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina

  • Jorge Eduardo Carrera
  • Mariano Féliz
  • Demian Tupac Panigo

In this paper we study the integration properties of some of the main macroeconomic series of Argentina. We present a robust methodology for the analysis of persistence of shocks affecting macroeconomic series and its consequences on the modeling of the cyclical and permanent components. Our strategy consists on testing the stationarity of the series by using a sequence of indicators in such a way that we can analyze the problem from three converging points of view: Persistence of the series, Unit Root (UR) and UR with a Structural Breaks, thus reaching robust results regarding the integration properties of the main 14 Argentinean macroeconomic time series. We are able to classify them in four homogenous groups according to its order of integration. This allows us to determine the best strategy for modeling the cyclical component of each variable. For example, we found that the GDP can be robustly considered integrated of order one, I (1)

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File URL: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab/doc20.pdf
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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 020.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:020
Contact details of provider: Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
Fax: 54-21-25-9536
Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab.php

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  1. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  4. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  7. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
  9. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The HUMP-Shaped Behavior of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 707-27.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
  12. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  13. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
  15. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  16. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
  17. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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