IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/v68y1992i1p325-356.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable

Author

Listed:
  • Perron, Pierre

    (Département de Sciences Économiques, Université de Montréal)

Abstract

This study presents an introduction to various concepts and issues related to autoregressive unit roots in the analysis of univariate time series models. The following topics are discussed: representation of the stochastic processes, testing procedures, issues related to the power of the tests, interpretation of the results and the practical usefulness of taking into account the problems caused by these unit roots. The study highlights the following points. First, unit root tests are highly dependent upon the specification of the deterministic component of the series. Secondly, tests for unit roots do not have much usefulness as a means of uncovering some kind of underlying "true process" but should be viewed rather as a device to 1) impose some useful restrictions, and ii) provide a guide to the appropriate asymptotic distribution to be used in subsequent steps. La présente étude fournit une introduction à certaines questions et concepts reliés aux racines unitaires autorégressives dans l’analyse statistique de modèles de séries chronologiques à une variable. On y aborde les sujets suivants : représentation des processus stochastiques, procédures de tests, questions reliées à leur puissance, interprétation des résultats et utilité pratique de prendre en compte des problèmes causés par la présence de racines unitaires. L’étude fait ressortir d’une part l’importance de la spécification de la partie déterministe de la série, et d’autre part l’utilité des tests de racines unitaires non pas en tant que moyens de découvrir le « vrai » processus sous-jacent mais en tant que moyens pratiques pour (i) imposer certaines restrictions utiles et (ii) permettre un guide quant à la classe appropriée de distributions asymptotiques à utiliser.

Suggested Citation

  • Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:68:y:1992:i:1:p:325-356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://id.erudit.org/iderudit/602070ar
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Test Consistency with Varying Sampling Frequency," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 341-368, September.
    5. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1987. "Does GNP have a unit root? : A re-evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 139-145.
    10. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    12. Kahn, James A. & Ogaki, Masao, 1990. "A chi-square test for a unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 37-42, September.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    14. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    15. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    17. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    18. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    19. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    20. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    21. Jaeger, Albert & Kunst, Robert M, 1990. "Seasonal Adjustment and Measuring Persistence in Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 47-58, January-M.
    22. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
    23. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    24. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    25. Pantula, Sastry G, 1991. "Asymptotic Distributions of Unit-Root Tests When the Process Is Nearly Stationary," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 63-71, January.
    26. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    27. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
    28. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    29. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    30. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    31. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    32. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    33. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    34. Pantula, Sastry G. & Hall, Alastair, 1991. "Testing for unit roots in autoregressive moving average models : An instrumental variable approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 325-353, June.
    35. Chen, Chung & Tiao, George C, 1990. "Random Level-Shift Time Series Models, ARIMA Approximations, and Level-Shift Detection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 83-97, January.
    36. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    37. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    38. Jaeger, Albert, 1990. "Shock persistence and the measurement of prewar output series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-337, December.
    39. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    40. Schmidt, P. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1990. "Testing forUnit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Papers 8904, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Serge Coulombe, 2000. "New Evidence of Convergence Across Canadian Provinces: The Role of Urbanization," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 713-725.
    2. Pierre Perron & Gabriel Rodríguez, "undated". "Residuals-based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-017, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    3. Gabriel Rodriguez & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Single-equation tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Harchaoui, Tarek M. & Lasserre, Pierre, 1995. "Testing the impact of taxation on capacity choice: A 'putty clay' approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 377-411, March.
    5. EL BOUHADI, Hamid & OUAHID, Driss, 2014. "Datation des changements structurels au sein d’une chronique : le cas des séries macroéconomiques marocaines
      [Dating structural changes in time series : the case of the Moroccan macroeconomic serie
      ," MPRA Paper 68168, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:68:y:1992:i:1:p:325-356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruce Shearer). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.