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Spurious Regression

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  • Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

Abstract

The spurious regression phenomenon in Least Squares occurs for a wide range of Data Generating Processes, such as driftless unit roots, unit roots with drift, long memory, trend and broken-trend stationarity. Indeed, spurious regressions have played a fundamental role in the building of modern time series econometrics and have revolutionized many of the procedures used in applied macroeconomics. Spin-offs from this research range from unit-root tests to cointegration and error-correction models. This paper provides an overview of results about spurious regression, pulled from disperse sources, and explains their implications.

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  • Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2008. "Spurious Regression," MPRA Paper 59008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59008
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    Cited by:

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    4. García-Belmonte, Lizeth & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2011. "Spurious regression and lurking variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(12), pages 2004-2010.
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    7. Ghouse, Ghulam & Khan, Saud Ahmed & Rehman, Atiq Ur, 2018. "ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression: problems, performance and prospectus," MPRA Paper 83973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.
    9. Chris Stewart, 2011. "A note on spurious significance in regressions involving I(0) and I(1) variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 565-571, December.
    10. Faruq-Uz-Zaman, Muhammad, 2021. "Contribution of Factors Affecting Crop Production in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis with Production Function Approach," OSF Preprints kxaym, Center for Open Science.
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    Keywords

    Spurious Regression; Stationarity; Unit Root; Long Memory.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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