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Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of non-stationary volatility

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  • Cavaliere, Giuseppe
  • Taylor, A.M. Robert

Abstract

In this paper we consider tests for the null of (trend-) stationarity against the alternative of a change in persistence at some (known or unknown) point in the observed sample, either from I(0) to I(1) behaviour or vice versa, of, inter alia, [Kim, J., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116]. We show that in circumstances where the innovation process displays non-stationary unconditional volatility of a very general form, which includes single and multiple volatility breaks as special cases, the ratio-based statistics used to test for persistence change do not have pivotal limiting null distributions. Numerical evidence suggests that this can cause severe over-sizing in the tests. In practice it may therefore be hard to discriminate between persistence change processes and processes with constant persistence but which display time-varying unconditional volatility. We solve the identified inference problem by proposing wild bootstrap-based implementations of the tests. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the bootstrap tests perform well in finite samples. An empirical illustration using USÂ price inflation data is provided.

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  • Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2008. "Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 84-98, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:1:p:84-98
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Florian Heinen & Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Zaklan, Aleksandar & Abrell, Jan & Neumann, Anne, 2016. "Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 96-103.
    3. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2008. "Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 84-98, November.
    4. Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2017. "A Robust Sequential Procedure for Estimating the Number of Structural Changes in Persistence," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1303, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    5. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047, January.
    6. Halunga, Andreea G. & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2009. "Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 30-32, January.
    7. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2008. "On Critical Values of Tests against a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 705-710, October.
    8. repec:eee:econom:v:198:y:2017:i:2:p:209-230 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bla:jtsera:v:38:y:2017:i:4:p:552-590 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chen, Zhanshou & Jin, Zi & Tian, Zheng & Qi, Peiyan, 2012. "Bootstrap testing multiple changes in persistence for a heavy-tailed sequence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 2303-2316.
    11. Halunga, Andreea G. & Orme, Chris D. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2017. "A heteroskedasticity robust Breusch–Pagan test for Contemporaneous correlation in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 209-230.
    12. repec:sbe:breart:v:29:y:2009:i:1:a:2693 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Aleksandar Zaklan & Jan Abrell & Anne Neumann, 2011. "Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Fossil Resource Prices: Evidence from Persistence Break Testing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1152, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
    15. Chen, Zhanshou & Tian, Zheng & Wei, Yuesong, 2010. "Monitoring change in persistence in linear time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(19-20), pages 1520-1527, October.
    16. Heinen, Florian & Willert, Juliane, 2011. "Monitoring a change in persistence of a long range dependent time series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-479, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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