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Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility

  • Giuseppe Cavaliere

    (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna)

  • Anders Rahbek

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • A. M. Robert Taylor

    (University of Nottingham)

Many key macro-economic and ?nancial variables are characterised by permanent changes in unconditional volatility. In this paper we analyse vector autoregressions with non-stationary (unconditional) volatility of a very general form, which includes single and multiple volatility breaks as special cases. We show that the conventional rank statistics computed as in Johansen (1988,1991) are potentially unreliable. In particular, their large sample distributions depend on the integrated covariation of the underlying multivariate volatility process which impacts on both the size and power of the associated co-integration tests, as we demonstrate numerically. A solution to the identi?ed inference problem is provided by considering wild bootstrap-based implementations of the rank tests. These do not require the practitioner to specify a parametric model for volatility, nor to assume that the pattern of volatility is common to, or independent across, the vector of series under analysis. The bootstrap is shown to perform very well in practice.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 08-34.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0834
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