IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/man/cgbcrp/16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Changes in Variability of the Business Cycle in the G7 Countries

Author

Listed:
  • D van Dijk
  • D R Osborn
  • M Sensier

Abstract

Volatility breaks are tested and documented for 19 important monthly macroeconomic time series across the G7 countries. Across all conditional mean specifications considered, including both linear and nonlinear models with and without a structural break, volatility breaks are found to be widespread. This continues to hold when business cycle nonlinearities are allowed in the variance. Multiple volatility breaks are also examined, and these are found to be especially prevalent for short-term interest rates. Volatility breaks in industrial production and consumer prices are largely synchronous across the G7. The facts established are discussed in the context of some explanations put forward in the literature to explain volatility breaks previously found for US series.

Suggested Citation

  • D van Dijk & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Changes in Variability of the Business Cycle in the G7 Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 16, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    2. Gali, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Valles, Javier, 2003. "Technology shocks and monetary policy: assessing the Fed's performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 723-743, May.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    6. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119, January.
    7. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 481-508, October.
    8. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Margaret M. McConnell & Patricia C. Mosser & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "A decomposition of the increased stability of GDP growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Aug).
    10. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004. "Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, August.
    14. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    15. Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 71-96.
    16. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    17. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    18. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2000. "The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?," International Finance Discussion Papers 677, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    20. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    21. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    22. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    23. Brunner, Allan D, 1992. "Conditional Asymmetries in Real GNP: A Seminonparametric Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 65-72, January.
    24. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
    25. Barnett,William A. & Hendry,David F. & Hylleberg,Svend & Teräsvirta,Timo & Tjøstheim,Dag & Würtz,All (ed.), 2000. "Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521594240, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q III), pages 5-32.
    2. Dong Jin Lee, 2021. "Bootstrap tests for structural breaks when the regressors and the serially correlated error term are unstable," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 212-229, April.
    3. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 7-24, September.
    4. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 132, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "Business cycle affiliations in the context of European integration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 199-214.
    6. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Dong Jin Lee, 2011. "Bootstrap Tests for Structural Breaks When the Regressors and Error Term are Nonstationary," Working papers 2011-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    9. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R.Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2016. "China's Increasing Global Influence: Changes in International Growth Spillovers," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 221, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Time‐Transformed Unit Root Tests for Models with Non‐Stationary Volatility," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 300-330, March.
    11. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stephan Smeekes & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 512-536, April.
    12. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 396-422, June.
    13. Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008. "Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 265-280, January.
    14. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2018. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 390-413, September.
    15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations," Working Papers 2003-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    16. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Kaustav Kanti Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu, 2021. "Nonlinear relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty in India: New evidence from a bivariate threshold model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 469-493, July.
    17. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    18. Smith Penelope & Summers Peter M, 2009. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modeling Business Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, September.
    19. Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2003. "The Decline in Income Growth Volatility in the United States: Evidence from Regional Data," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    20. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    21. Hao Jin & Si Zhang & Jinsuo Zhang, 2017. "Spurious regression due to neglected of non-stationary volatility," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 1065-1081, September.
    22. Ossama Mikhail, 2004. "No More Rocking Horses: Trading Business-Cycle Depth for Duration Using an Economy-Specific Characteristic," Macroeconomics 0402026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Ossama Mikhail, 2006. "Trading Business-Cycle Depth for Duration using an economy-specific characteristic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(7), pages 1-12.
    24. Kemal Çag̃lar Gög̃ebakan & Burak Alparslan Eroglu, 2022. "Non-parametric seasonal unit root tests under periodic non-stationary volatility," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 2581-2636, November.
    25. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 919-947, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
    2. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, March.
    4. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    5. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    6. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Least squares estimation and tests of breaks in mean and variance under misspecification," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 32-54, June.
    10. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    11. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto & Jing Zhou, 2020. "Testing jointly for structural changes in the error variance and coefficients of a linear regression model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 1019-1057, July.
    12. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "The great moderation: updated evidence with joint tests for multiple structural changes in variance and persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1193-1218, March.
    14. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    15. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
    16. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    17. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
    18. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
    19. Jouini, Jamel & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2005. "Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 391-422, May.
    20. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marianne Sensier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.