The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?
This paper attempts to add to the understanding of changes in the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations by examining disaggregated employment data. Specifically, we use a stochastic variance approach on monthly employment data for the 1946-1996 period to highlight two stylized facts of aggregate U.S. employment - greater volatility in recessions than expansions and reduced volatility since the early 1980s. These patterns are not, however, apparent in each sector of the economy. Asymmetric volatility is only evident in manufacturing and trade; other sectors, such as construction or the narrowly defined services sector, are just as likely to exhibit high volatility in expansions. A general reduction in volatility is evident only in goods-producing sectors; some industries in the broad service-producing sector have become more volatile over time. Our results highlight the close relationship between aggregate and manufacturing volatility, and suggest that to understand why the U.S. business cycle has become more muted, researchers should strive to understand the forces at work that are reducing volatility in the manufacturing sector.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996.
"The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 1995. "Recent evidence on the muted inventory cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 27-43.
- David E. Lebow & Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Is the shift toward employment in services stabilizing?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 123, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119, January.
- Mark W. French & Daniel E. Sichel, 1991. "Cyclical patterns in the variance of economic activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 161, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Joseph A. Ritter, 1994. "Job creation and destruction: the dominance of manufacturing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1995. "The differential effects of monetary policy shocks on regional economic activity," Working Papers 95-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- repec:cep:stiecm:/1993/268 is not listed on IDEAS
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
- Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
- Joe Ganley & Chris Salmon, 1997. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Stylised Facts," Bank of England working papers 68, Bank of England.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1986. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 519-582 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew C Harvey & N.G. Shephard, 1993. "Estimation and Testing of Stochastic Variance Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 268, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Ruiz, Esther, 1994. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 289-306, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.