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Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline

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Abstract

The variance of New Zealand’s real GDP has declined since the mid-1980s. To investigate why, this paper decomposes the variance of chain-weighted estimates of production-based real GDP growth into sector shares, sector growth rate variances and co-variances. The principal explanation for the decline in GDP volatility is a fall in the sum of sector variances driven by a decline in the Services and Manufacturing sector production growth variances. Sector co-variances have had a dominant influence on the profile of GDP volatility and this influence has not diminished. Despite marked changes in sector shares, notably increases in Services and Primary sector shares and a decrease in the share of Manufacturing, this has not been a significant factor influencing the decline in GDP volatility. We postulate that policy interventions such as “Think Big”, regulatory interventions during the early 1980s, and the introduction of GST are key explanations for the higher volatility until the mid 1980s. Cessation of these interventions, deregulation and possibly changes in inventory management methods are important reasons why GDP volatility has fallen since then.

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  • Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:01/33
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    File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2001/01-33/twp01-33.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Edda Claus & Iris Claus, 2005. "New Zealand'S Economic Reforms And Changing Production Structure," CAMA Working Papers 2005-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Grimes, Arthur, 2006. "A smooth ride: Terms of trade, volatility and GDP growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 583-600, October.
    3. Li, Kui-Wai & Kwok, Ming-Lok, 2009. "Output volatility of five crisis-affected East Asia economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 172-182, March.
    4. Peter Mawson, 2002. "Measuring Economic Growth in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/14, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
    6. Iris Claus, 2003. "Changes in New Zealand's Production Structure: An Input Output Analysis," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/01, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; growth; production sector shares; manufacturing; services; primary; construction.;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing

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