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The Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series, 1889–1984

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  • Christina D. Romer

Abstract

This paper uses simple summary statistics to analyze the volatility, persistence, and comovement of 38 annual individual production series for the period 1889–1984. It seeks to identify the size, source, and correlation of fluctuations in the production of specific commodities within various sample periods and to analyze possible changes in these characteristics over time. The paper also discusses the implications of the behavior of individual production series for the behavior of the aggregate economy within the prewar, interwar, and postwar eras.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer, 1991. "The Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series, 1889–1984," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 1-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:1:p:1-31.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/2937904
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    Cited by:

    1. Sadequl Islam, 1996. "Persistence of economic growth and its determinants: some evidence for South Korea and India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 53-54.
    2. Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003. "Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
    3. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2023. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 283-304, February.
    4. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800-1921," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _185, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
    7. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2001. "Prewar and Postwar Macroeconomic Uncertainty: An International Perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 615-631, October.
    8. Gustavo Freire & Marcelo Resende, 2020. "Conditional growth volatility and sectoral comovement in U.S. industrial production, 1828–1915," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 3063-3084, December.

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