A Smooth Ride: Terms of Trade, Volatility and GDP Growth
International evidence indicates that higher terms of trade levels and lower terms of trade volatility contribute to enhanced growth outcomes, especially for commodity-export and developing countries. New Zealand's terms of trade have been high and remarkably stable since the early 1990s compared with past experience. We analyse the proximate reasons behind these high, stable terms of trade and then examine whether this terms of trade behaviour explains growth outcomes since 1960. Attention is paid to growth outcomes over a variety of economic regimes. Approximately half the variance in annual GDP growth over 45 years can be explained by the level and volatility of the terms of trade. The relationship is robust across four economic regimes.
|Date of creation:||May 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +64-4-473 4638
Web page: http://www.med.govt.nz/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003.
"Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
- Stephen Turnovsky & Pradip Chattopadhyay, 1998. "Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0055, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Stephen Turnovsky & Pradip Chattopadhyay, 1998. "Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 0055, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001.
"Trade in capital goods,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2001. "Trade in Capital Goods," NBER Working Papers 8070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Trade in Capital Goods," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-109, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Trade in Capital Goods," Levine's Working Paper Archive 228400000000000019, David K. Levine.
- Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
- Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004.
"Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers,"
Business School Working Papers
exchangerates, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993.
"Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
- Robert A. Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2004. "Markov Switching Models for GDP Growth in a Small Open Economy: The New Zealand Experience," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 227-257.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007.
"Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 562-585, June.
- Bloomfield, Arthur I, 1984. "Effect of Growth on the Terms of Trade: Some Earlier Views," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(202), pages 187-93, May.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1995.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003.
"Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline,"
New Zealand Economic Papers,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
- Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury.
- Francesco Caselli, 2007.
"The Marginal Product of Capital,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568, 05.
- Caselli, Francesco & Feyrer, James, 2005. "The Marginal Product of Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 5203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2005. "The Marginal Product of Capital," NBER Working Papers 11551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2006. "The Marginal Product of Capital," CEP Discussion Papers dp0735, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Wells, Graeme & Evans, Lewis, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(172), pages 421-35, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:nzmedo:2006_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Devine)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.