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Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach

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  • Thanh, Su Dinh

    () (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh, Ho Chi Minh, VIETNAM)

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and economic growth is a contentious issue. The present study is undertaking to test hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. This pane data study involves ASEAN-5 countries over the period 1980–2011. Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model is employed to estimate the threshold of inflation and its effects on economic growth. Furthermore, we also check robustness by using GMM-IV specification. The study finds that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the threshold level of 7.84%, above which inflation starts impeding economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries. The results suggest that central banks in the ASEAN-5 countries could improve economic growth by reducing inflation when it is above or near the estimated thresholds. The threshold inflation level can be considered, therefore, as inflation targeting indicator to conduct monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:joefas:0083
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    4. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
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    7. Ambar Galih & Sugiharso Safuan, 2017. "On Nonlinear Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of ASEAN-5 Countries Period 2000–2016," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 63, pages 1-12, June.
    8. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 599-620, October.
    9. Ndoricimpa, Arcade & Osoro, Nehemiah & Kidane, Asmerom, 2016. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in selected African regional economic communities: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold modeling," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 41, pages 5-23.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; Crecimiento; Umbral de la inflación; PSTR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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