IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fis/journl/23s0125.html

Is Inflation a Trigger of Growth or a Harbinger of Economic Slowness? A Dynamic Threshold Model Analysis on 26 Sub-Regions of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Merter AKINCI
  • Gönül YÃœCE AKINCI
  • Ömer YILMAZ

Abstract

This study aims to explain the effects of regional inflation thresholds on regional economic growth in 26 sub-regions (NUTS-2 level) in the Turkish economy by using dynamic threshold model analysis for the period 2004-2020. The findings of the analysis show that increases in regional inflation rates affect regional growth positively until reaching the threshold value, but negatively after exceeding the threshold value in 20 of 26 sub-regions. This result is in parallel with the findings frequently questioned in the literature in recent years and points out the phenomenon that is composed of the synthesis of the monetarist and the structural views. Besides, analysis findings showing that steady-state income convergence process is valid in 25 sub-regions reflect that increases in regional population ratios have statistically insignificant effects on regional economic growth. In addition, it has been observed that employment increases accelerate the growth processes of relatively developed regions, while statistically insignificant effects have been detected in underdeveloped regions. A similar result shows itself in terms of foreign trade data, and it is seen that the effect of foreign trade on regional growth is quite limited. When the results are evaluated as a whole, it can be mentioned that the distinction between developed and underdeveloped regions in the Turkish economy is sharp and that macroeconomic indicators affect the economic growth of the regions according to their development level.

Suggested Citation

  • Merter AKINCI & Gönül YÃœCE AKINCI & Ömer YILMAZ, 2023. "Is Inflation a Trigger of Growth or a Harbinger of Economic Slowness? A Dynamic Threshold Model Analysis on 26 Sub-Regions of Turkey," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue s1.
    • Handle: RePEc:fis:journl:23s0125
    DOI: 10.25295/fsecon.1351453
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/3368837
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.25295/fsecon.1351453?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    4. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 813-843, October.
    5. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January.
    6. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
    7. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995. "Growth and the effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November.
    8. Vaona, A. & Schiavo, S., 2007. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 452-458, March.
    9. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    10. EKINCI, Ramazan & TUZUN,Osman & CEYLAN, Fatih, 2020. "The Relationship Between Inflation And Economic Growth: Experiences Of Some Inflation Targeting Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(1), pages 6-20, March.
    11. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    12. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara J, 1993. "What We Have Learned about Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Regressions?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 426-430, May.
    13. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 455-464, September.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    15. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mr. Peter Doyle & Mr. Peter F. Christoffersen, 1998. "From Inflation to Growth: Eight Years of Transition," IMF Working Papers 1998/100, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Steven T Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 1998/068, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    19. Sweidan, O.D., 2004. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth in Jordan?. An Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 41-66.
    20. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Mr. Gene L. Leon, 2010. "Estimating The Inflation–Growth Nexus—A Smooth Transition Model," IMF Working Papers 2010/076, International Monetary Fund.
    21. André Roncaglia De Carvalho & - André M. Marques, 2018. "Economic Development And Inflation: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 41, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    22. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    23. Joseph Magnus Frimpong & Eric Fosu Oteng-Abayie, 2010. "When is Inflation Harmful? Estimating the Threshold Effect for Ghana," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 2(3), pages 232-239, September.
    24. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
    25. André Roncaglia de Carvalho & Rafael S. M. Ribeiro & André M. Marques, 2018. "Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 546-565, July.
    26. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    27. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    28. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    2. Samir Ghazouani, 2012. "Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region," Working Papers 715, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    3. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    5. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    6. Thierno Thioune & Dieudonné Mignamissi & Séraphin Brice Minkoé Bikoula, 2025. "The Non-linear effect of Inflation on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Democracy Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 5548-5571, March.
    7. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Paradigm, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    8. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Inflation and Growth Nexus: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 471-512, September.
    9. EKINCI, Ramazan & TUZUN,Osman & CEYLAN, Fatih, 2020. "The Relationship Between Inflation And Economic Growth: Experiences Of Some Inflation Targeting Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(1), pages 6-20, March.
    10. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.
    11. Thouraya BOUJELBENE, 2021. "Nonlinearity Relationship of Inflation and Economic Growth: Role of Institutions Quality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 166-179, December.
    12. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    13. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    14. Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
    15. Celil AYDIN, 2017. "The Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For D-8 Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-151, December.
    16. Mothuti Gosego & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Botswana: Can Lower Inflation Really Spur Growth in the Country?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Nell, Kevin, 2023. "Inflation and growth in developing economies: A tribute to Professor Thirlwall," MPRA Paper 118757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2023.
    18. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    20. Tolga Omay & Reneé Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Inflation–growth nexus: evidence from a pooled CCE multiple-regime panel smooth transition model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 913-944, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fis:journl:23s0125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emre Atsan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://dergipark.org.tr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.