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Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis

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  • Khoza, Keorapetse
  • Thebe, Relebogile
  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

In this paper, we challenge the notion of a monotonic relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. In particular, we establish threshold effects in the inflation-growth relationship using a smooth transition regression (STR) model which is applied on data collected between 1994:Q1 and 2016:Q2. Our empirical results confirm a threshold of 5.4 percent in which the effects of inflation on economic growth are positive below this threshold whereas inflation exerts adverse effect on economic growth at inflation levels above this level. In a nutshell, our study offers support in favour of the optimal level of inflation lying between the current 3-6 percent inflation target and more specifically suggests that the monetary authorities should slightly lower the upper level of this target to about 5.4 percent as a means creating a more conducive financial environment for promoting higher economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73840
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Endogenous monetary approach to optimal inflation–growth nexus in Swaziland," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 559-571, March.
    3. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Analysing the sources of growth in an emerging market economy: the Thailand experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 340-359.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Economic growth; Thresholds; Smooth transition regressions (STR); South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB).;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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