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Asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth in South Africa

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  • Andrew Phiri

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth for South African data spanning over the period of 1992-2013. Design/methodology/approach - – This study makes the use of the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) approach which allows for threshold error-correction (TEC) modeling and Granger causality analysis between the variables. In carrying out an empirical analysis, the author uses six measures of the financial development variables against gross domestic per capita, that is, three measures which proxy banking activity and another three proxies for stock market development. Findings - – The empirical results generally indicate an abrupt asymmetric cointegration relationship between banking activity and economic growth, on the one hand, and a smooth cointegration relationship between stock market activity and economic growth, on the other hand. Moreover, causality analysis generally reveals that while banking activity tends to Granger cause economic growth, stock market activity is, however, caused by economic growth increase. Originality/value - – This study contributes to the literature by examining asymmetries in the cointegration and causality relations by using both banking and stock market proxies against economic growth for the South African economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Phiri, 2015. "Asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(4), pages 464-484, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:32:y:2015:i:4:p:464-484
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-01-2014-0009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Long-run equilibrium adjustment between inflation and stock market returns in South Africa: a nonlinear perspective," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 19-33.
    2. Sinazo Guduza & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from the JSE equity and bond markets," Working Papers 1718, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Dec 2017.
    3. Ismail, Yusra & Masih, Mansur, 2019. "Is the relationship between inflation and financial development symmetric or asymmetric? new evidence from Sudan based on NARDL," MPRA Paper 94694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jonathan A. Batten & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2016. "Bank risk shifting and diversification in an emerging market," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 217-235, December.
    5. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2022. "On the transmission mechanisms in the finance–growth nexus in Southern African countries: Does institution matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 153-191, February.
    6. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Noor Azuddin Yakob, 2017. "Revisiting stock market development and economic growth nexus: The moderating role of foreign capital inflows and exchange rates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1329975-132, January.
    7. Mashilana Ngondo & Andrew Phiri, 2025. "Has US (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy Affected South African Financial Markets in the Aftermath of COVID-19? A Quantile–Frequency Connectedness Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "The Unemployment-Stock Market Relationship in South Africa: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration Models," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 15(3 (Fall)), pages 231-254.
    10. Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 474-487, June.
    11. Maxwell Chukwudi Udeagha & Marthinus Christoffel Breitenbach, 2023. "Exploring the moderating role of financial development in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa: fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-52, December.
    12. José A. Pérez‐Montiel & Carles Manera, 2022. "Is autonomous demand really autonomous in the United States? An asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 78-92, February.
    13. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Empirical Reassessment of Bank-based Financial Development and Economic Growth in Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 78920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & Sunday Idowu Oladeji, 2021. "Moderating the effect of institutional quality on the finance–growth nexus: insights from West African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 43-74, February.
    15. Satyaban Sahoo & Sanjay Kumar, 2021. "Existence of Cointegration between the Public and Private Bank Index: Evidence from Indian Capital Market," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 152-172, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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