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Long run equilibrium adjustment between inflation and stock market returns in South Africa: A nonlinear perspective

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  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

Following the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the empirical investigation into financial variables affecting the performance of stock markets has gained prominence in the field of research. This study becomes the first to investigate the asymmetric cointegration effects of inflation on the stock market returns for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) using monthly data collected from 2003:01 to 2014:12. The empirical model used in the study is the recently developed momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model. Indeed, our results advocate for a negative, nonlinear cointegration relationship between inflation and stock returns in South Africa with causality running uni-directional from inflation to stock returns. Our empirical results suggest two things. Firstly, investors cannot hedge against rising inflation by investing in equity stocks listed on the JSE. Secondly, monetary policy, through the use of inflation targets, can provide a stable financial environment for the growth of equity markets in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Long run equilibrium adjustment between inflation and stock market returns in South Africa: A nonlinear perspective," MPRA Paper 70260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70260
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami, 2019. "Inflation Persistence in the West African Commonwealth Countries," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(3), pages 80-89, September.
    2. Kolisi, Nwabisa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Changes in the relationship between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," MPRA Paper 80173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Javed Pervaiz & Sunil Kumar Chaudhary, 2017. "Nexuses between Economic Factors and Stock Returns in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 182-191, September.
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Threshold convergence between the federal fund rate and South African equity returns around the colocation period," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(1).
    6. Sinazo Guduza & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from the JSE equity and bond markets," Working Papers 1718, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Dec 2017.
    7. Md. Qamruzzaman & Ananda Bardhan & Summatun Nasya, 2020. "Nexus between Remittance, Nonperforming Loan, Money Supply, and Financial Volatility: An Application of ARDL," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 11-29.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Stock market returns; Momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model; Threshold error correction (TEC) model; Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE); South Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); Developing economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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