Stock Returns and Inflation in Greece
This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and inflation. We focus on various econometric techniques to test this relationship, using monthly values of the Athens Stock Exchange Price index and the Greek Consumer Price index over the period 1988-2002. The results from a simple OLS model show evidence of a positive but not significant relationship, while when we consider a system of equations including lagged values of inflation we find a negative but not significant effect of lagged inflation to stock returns. Using the Johansen cointegration test, we find that there is no long-run relationship between stock returns and inflation in Greece. The results indicate that the inflation rate is not correlated with stock returns. Finally, from a dynamic point of view, the Granger-Causality tests indicate evidence of no causality among these variables.
Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm |
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The stock return-inflation puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 147-156, April.
- Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
- Spyros Spyrou, 2001. "Stock returns and inflation: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 447-450.
- Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Tony Caporale & Chulho Jung, 1997. "Inflation and real stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 265-266.
- Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1998.
"Inflation, Asset Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm44, Yale School of Management.
- Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996. "Inflation, Asset Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 241-75.
- Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-83, May.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.