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Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India

  • Chatrath, Arjun
  • Ramchander, Sanjay
  • Song, Frank

A negative relationship between stock market returns and inflationary trends has been widely documented for developed economies in Europe and North America. This study provides similar evidence for India. This relationship is investigated in light of Fama's explanation that centres around linkages between inflation and real activity, and between stock returns and real activity. Specifically, the study tests whether the negative stock return-inflation relationship is explained by a negative relationship between inflation and real economic activity, and a positive relationship between real activity and stock returns. The results from the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation corrected models provide only partial support for Fama's hypothesis. The relationship between real activity and inflation does not account for the negative relationship between real stock returns and the unexpected component of inflation.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 237-245

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Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:7:y:1996:i:2:p:237-245
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
  3. Liu, Y Angela & Hsueh, L Paul & Clayton, Ronnie J, 1993. "A Re-examination of the Proxy Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-68, Fall.
  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  6. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
  7. Ram, Rati & Spencer, David E, 1983. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 463-70, June.
  8. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
  9. Y. Angela Liu & L. Paul Hsueh & Ronnie J. Clayton, 1993. "A Re-Examination Of The Proxy Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, 09.
  10. Fama, Eugene F, 1982. "Inflation, Output, and Money," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 201-31, April.
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