How Inflation, Market Capitalization, Industrial Production and the Economic Sentiment Indicator Affect the EU-12 Stock Markets
In the present study we map the relationship between the EU-12 stock market price indices and four crucial macroeconomic factors, using panel data analysis. The examined variables are market capitalization, industrial production, the economic sentiment indicator, and inflation, while the twelve countries are those which have adopted the euro. The empirical results reveal a strong effect of the first three factors, while inflation has a negative but not statistically significant coefficient. Further, the variables that affect the stock markets positively are market capitalization and the economic sentiment indicator. Finally, an applied statistical model confirms the significant convergence of the EU-12 stock markets in the long run, indicating a low geographic diversification across European markets.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vihang Errunza & Ked Hogan, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of European Stock Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 361-377.
- Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon, 1976. "The "Fisher Effect" for Risky Assets: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 447-58, May.
- Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
- Mandelker, Gershon & Tandon, Kishore, 1985. "Common stock returns, real activity, money, and inflation: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 267-286, June.
- Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
- Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. " Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989.
"The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity,"
8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005.
"Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time,"
Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies
2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Day, Theodore E, 1984. " Real Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 493-502, June.
- Samy Ben Naceur & Samir Ghazouani & Mohamed Omran, 2007. "The determinants of stock market development in the Middle-Eastern and North African region," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(7), pages 477-489.
- Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 29-59, May.
- Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
- Eleftherios Thalassinos & Pantelis E. Thalassinos, 2006. "Stock Markets' Integration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 3-14.
- Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
- Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
- Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
- Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent J., 2001. "Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 401-426, August.
- Eva Ferreira & M. Isabel Martínez Serna & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2008. "Economic Sentiment and Yield Spreads in Europe," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 206-221.
- Branch, Ben, 1974. "Common Stock Performance and Inflation: An International Comparison," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(1), pages 48-52, January.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Pandey I M, . "The Expected Stock Returns of Malaysian Firms: A Panel Data Analysis," IIMA Working Papers WP2001-09-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
- Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-55, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiv:y:2011:i:1:p:105-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eleni Giannakopoulou)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.