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Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa


  • Umar Bida Ndako

    () (Bayero University, Nigeria)


The paper examines the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in South Africa while controlling for the effect of banking variable. It applies vector error correction model (VECM), generalized impulse response function (GIRF) and variance decomposition (VDC). In the long-run, the finding suggests evidence of bidirectional causality between financial development and economic growth using bank credit to private sector (BCP). When stock market variables are used, turnover ratio (TR) and value of shares traded (VT); both indicate unidirectional causality from economic growth to stock market development. The generalized Impulse response function and variance decomposition indicate that financial development contains some useful information in predicting the future path of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar Bida Ndako, 2010. "Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 72-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:afj:journl:v:12:y:2010:i:2:p:72-92

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Long-run equilibrium adjustment between inflation and stock market returns in South Africa: a nonlinear perspective," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 19-33.
    2. Borlea Sorin Nicolae & Puscas Adriana & Mare Codruta & Achim Monica Violeta, 2016. "Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth. Evidence for Developing Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, De Gruyter Open, vol. 26(2), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010)
      [Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Portugues
      ," MPRA Paper 39808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ndako, Umar Bida, 2013. "The Day of the Week effect on stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa," MPRA Paper 48076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Mahmood, Haider & Arouri, Mohamed, 2013. "Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 145-152.
    6. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.
    7. Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2016. "Integration of financial markets, financial development and growth: Is Africa different?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 43-59.

    More about this item


    Vector autoregression; Economic growth; Stock markets; Banks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General


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