IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change

Author Info

  • Marques, Luís Miguel
  • Fuinhas, José Alberto
  • Marques, António Cardoso

Abstract

The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. The physical replacement of the currency, as a consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, proves to be an economic regime change. The effect of the subprime crisis was also proved. There is evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between the stock market and economic growth. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of causality running from bank financing to economic growth.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313000655
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 316-324

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:316-324
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Keywords: Stock market; Economic growth; Economic regime change; Granger causality; VAR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
  • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002. "Industry Growth and Capital Allocation: Does Having a Market- or Bank-Based System Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bordo, Michael D. & Rousseau, Peter L., 2012. "Historical evidence on the finance-trade-growth nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1236-1243.
  3. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence," NBER Working Papers 9082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1988. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," RCER Working Papers 131, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Lee, Bong-Soo, 2012. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems: Time-series evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 173-197.
  6. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1690, The World Bank.
  7. Capasso, Salvatore, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth," Working Paper Series RP2006/102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  8. repec:fth:wobaco:1083 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
  10. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125514 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Chaiechi, Taha, 2012. "Financial development shocks and contemporaneous feedback effect on key macroeconomic indicators: A post Keynesian time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 487-501.
  12. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock market development and long-run growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1582, The World Bank.
  13. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  14. Michael Leahy & Sebastian Schich & Gert Wehinger & Florian Pelgrin & Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, 2001. "Contributions of Financial Systems to Growth in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 280, OECD Publishing.
  15. Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL bounds test approach (1965–2009)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 511-517.
  16. Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 29-59, May.
  17. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 291-321, May.
  18. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2011. "Thresholds in the Finance-Growth Nexus: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 278-295, May.
  19. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  20. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
  21. Levine, Ross, 1991. " Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-65, September.
  22. Nielsson, Ulf, 2009. "Stock exchange merger and liquidity: The case of Euronext," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 229-267, May.
  23. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  24. Salvatore Capasso, 2008. "Endogenous Information Frictions, Stock Market Development And Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(2), pages 204-222, 03.
  25. Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 114-130, June.
  26. Benson Durham, J., 2002. "The effects of stock market development on growth and private investment in lower-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-232, September.
  27. Umar Bida Ndako, 2010. "Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 72-92.
  28. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125506 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Marini, Francois, 2005. "Banks, financial markets, and social welfare," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2557-2575, October.
  30. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter G. A Howells & Alaa M. Soliman, 2004. "Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50, June.
  31. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
  32. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2010. "Inflation and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 229-236, January.
  33. Mansur Masih & Ali Al-Elg & Haider Madani, 2009. "Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1691-1699.
  34. Hyoungsoo Zang & Young Chul Kim, 2007. "Does financial development precede growth? Robinson and Lucas might be right," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 15-19.
  35. Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
  36. Singh, Ajit, 1996. "Financial liberalisation,stockmarkets and economic development," MPRA Paper 53897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
  38. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
  39. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 176-188, June.
  40. Bose, Niloy & Cothren, Richard, 1997. "Asymmetric Information and Loan Contracts in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 423-39, November.
  41. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
  42. Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 777-793, November.
  43. Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van & Buelens, Frans & Cuyvers, Ludo, 2006. "Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 13-38, January.
  44. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1140-1146, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:316-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.