Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change
The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. The physical replacement of the currency, as a consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, proves to be an economic regime change. The effect of the subprime crisis was also proved. There is evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between the stock market and economic growth. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of causality running from bank financing to economic growth.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
- Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 777-793, November.
- Mark M. Spiegel, 2004.
"Monetary and financial integration: evidence from the EMU,"
FRBSF Economic Letter,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug6.
- Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 114-130, June.
- Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 29-59, May.
- Chaiechi, Taha, 2012. "Financial development shocks and contemporaneous feedback effect on key macroeconomic indicators: A post Keynesian time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 487-501.
- Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1989.
"Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income,"
NBER Working Papers
3189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1988. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," Working Papers 88-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1988. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," RCER Working Papers 131, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, .
"Stock markets, banks and economic growth ,"
CERF Discussion Paper Series
95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Umar Bida Ndako, 2010. "Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 72-92.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Rousseau, Peter L., 2012.
"Historical evidence on the finance-trade-growth nexus,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1236-1243.
- Michael D. Bordo & Peter L. Rousseau, 2011. "Historical Evidence on the Finance-Trade-Growth Nexus," NBER Working Papers 17024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2010. "Inflation and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 229-236, January.
- Marini, Francois, 2005. "Banks, financial markets, and social welfare," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2557-2575, October.
- Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL bounds test approach (1965–2009)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 511-517.
- Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011.
"Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 176-188, June.
- Chrysost BANGAKE & Comlanvi Jude EGGOH, 2010. "Further Evidence on Finance-Growth Causality: A Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers 671, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
- Capasso, Salvatore, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth," Working Paper Series RP2006/102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
- Bose, Niloy & Cothren, Richard, 1997. "Asymmetric Information and Loan Contracts in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 423-39, November.
- Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
- Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002.
"Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
9082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1995.
"Stock market development and financial intermediaries : stylized facts,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1462, The World Bank.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 291-321, May.
- Singh, Ajit, 1997.
"Financial Liberalisation, Stockmarkets and Economic Development,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 771-82, May.
- Ajit Singh, 1998. "Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 8(1), pages 165-182.
- Singh, Ajit, 1996. "Financial liberalisation,stockmarkets and economic development," MPRA Paper 53897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Nielsson, Ulf, 2009. "Stock exchange merger and liquidity: The case of Euronext," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 229-267, May.
- King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993.
"Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
- Salvatore Capasso, 2008. "Endogenous Information Frictions, Stock Market Development And Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(2), pages 204-222, 03.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 2012. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems: Time-series evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 173-197.
- Thomas Gries & Manfred Kraft & Daniel Meierrieks, 2008.
"Linkages between Financial Deepening,Trade Openness and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Working Papers CIE
15, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
- Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996.
"Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 323-39, May.
- Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002.
"Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
- Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002. "Industry Growth and Capital Allocation: Does Having a Market- or Bank-Based System Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Leahy & Sebastian Schich & Gert Wehinger & Florian Pelgrin & Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, 2001. "Contributions of Financial Systems to Growth in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 280, OECD Publishing.
- Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van & Buelens, Frans & Cuyvers, Ludo, 2006. "Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 13-38, January.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
- Levine, Ross, 1991. " Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-65, September.
- Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2011. "Thresholds in the Finance-Growth Nexus: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 278-295, May.
- Benson Durham, J., 2002. "The effects of stock market development on growth and private investment in lower-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-232, September.
- Marini, François, 2005. "Banks, financial markets, and social welfare," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/15002, Paris Dauphine University.
- Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter G. A Howells & Alaa M. Soliman, 2004. "Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50, June.
- Mansur Masih & Ali Al-Elg & Haider Madani, 2009. "Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1691-1699.
- Hyoungsoo Zang & Young Chul Kim, 2007. "Does financial development precede growth? Robinson and Lucas might be right," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 15-19.
- Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
- Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
- Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1140-1146, November.
- Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:316-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.