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Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia

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  • Mansur Masih
  • Ali Al-Elg
  • Haider Madani

Abstract

This article makes an attempt to test the possible directions of causality between financial development and economic growth, which were labelled by Patrick (1966) as the supply-leading and demand-following hypothesis. Saudi Arabia is taken as a case study. The methods applied are the error correction and variance decompositions techniques including the most recently developed 'long-run structural modelling (LRSM)' (Pesaran and Shin, 2002), which by imposing exactly identifying and overidentifying restrictions on the cointegrating vector has taken care of a major limitation of the conventional cointegrating estimates in that they were atheoretical in nature. To the best of our knowledge, there has not been any study on this issue with the application of the techniques that incorporate 'LRSM'. The stability of the functions has also been tested by Cumulative Sum (CUSUM), Cumulative Sum of Squares (CUSUMSQ) and Chow Test (CHOW) tests. Our findings, based on the above mentioned rigorous techniques, tend to suggest that the direction of causation between financial development and economic growth is supply-leading (rather than demand-following), as expected at the early stage of development. These findings have clear policy implications in that a pro-active policy of growth and reform of the financial sector will help enhance economic growth in an open developing economy like Saudi Arabia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansur Masih & Ali Al-Elg & Haider Madani, 2009. "Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1691-1699.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:13:p:1691-1699 DOI: 10.1080/00036840701320233
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ahmad, Nawaz & Alam, Shaista, 2016. "Financial development and environmental quality: The way forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 353-364.
    2. Rafi, Umar & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Are Islamic Banks Truly Shariah Compliant? An Application of Time Series Multivariate Forecasting Techniques to Islamic Bank Financing," MPRA Paper 57711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ahmad Monir Abdullah & Abul Mansur Mohammed Masih, 2016. "Diversification in Crude Oil and Other Commodities: A Comparative Analysis," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, pages 101-128.
    4. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    5. Valli, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Is there any causality between inflation and FDI in an ‘inflation targeting’ regime? Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 60246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chin-Hong, Puah & Lee-Chea, Hiew, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Weighted Monetary Aggregates and Money Demand in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 31731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:52:p:5337-5351 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010)
      [Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Portugues
      ," MPRA Paper 39808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Abosedra, Salah & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Energy Consumption, Financial Development and Growth: Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks in Lebanon," MPRA Paper 46580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Relationship between regional Shariah stock markets: The cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 76281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Awaludin, Fadhlee & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Sukuk pricing dynamics - factors influencing yield curve of the Malaysian Sukuk," MPRA Paper 66355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:hur:ijarbs:v:7:y:2017:i:10:p:457-466 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Rithuan, Syahidah Hanis Meor & Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "The Impact of Crude Oil Price on Islamic Stock Indices of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: A Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 56989, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.
    15. Ismail, Mohamed Ayaz Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Causality between financial development and economic growth, and the Islamic finance imperative: A case study of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 65831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Saiti, Buerhan & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "Causality between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study for Malaysia," MPRA Paper 56987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does economic freedom lead or lag economic growth? evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 79446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bm, Hakim & Uddin, Md Akther, 2016. "Does Islamic bank financing lead to economic growth: An empirical analysis for Malaysia," MPRA Paper 69075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Saiti, Buerhan & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "The Impact of Crude Oil Price on Islamic Stock Indices of South East Asian (SEA) Countries: A Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 56957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sultan, Yousuf & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does microfinance affect economic growth? Evidence from Bangladesh based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 72123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aslan, Alper & Apergis, Nicholas & Topcu, Mert, 2014. "Banking development and energy consumption: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 427-433.
    22. Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "The Impact of Crude Oil Price on Macroeconomic Variables: New Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 56976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mita Bhattacharya & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2017. "Finance and income inequality in Kazakhstan: evidence since transition with policy suggestions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(52), pages 5337-5351, November.

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